Editor's Note:
A high-level defense dialogue between China and India will open Friday, despite the postponement of the Sino-Indian border talks that were scheduled for last month. Will the upcoming defense dialogue help resume military exchanges between the two countries? As the US "returns to Asia," what will the relationships between China, India and the US change? Global Times (GT) reporter Wang Wenwen talked to Fu Xiaoqiang (Fu)， researcher at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, and M. D. Nalapat (Nalapat)， director and professor of the School of Geopolitics at Manipal University in India, on these issues。
GT: Some think the upcoming defense dialogue won't produce any substantive results. What do you think? Will military exchanges be resumed?
M. D. Nalapat
Nalapat: It is good that the two sides have resumed the military dialogue, which had been frozen for nearly a year because of visa difficulties. The more the two militaries meet and hold joint drills, the more both will realize that they are much closer in professionalism and military doctrine to each other than they are to any other military in the region.
Hopefully, the upcoming defense dialogue will initiate a process of intensive contact between the two sides.
Fu Xiaoqiang
Fu: Problems such as Indian mistrust of China and border issues between the two countries won't be solved through a single defense dialogue. But communication between the two militaries will help enhance mutual trust in border areas.
There won't be any conspicuous coalition between any two of the three, but veiled strife will continue.
It's also a good platform to ease each other's misunderstandings. It's very likely that China and India will resume military exchanges.
GT: As the two biggest countries in Asia, do China and India have a tacit understanding to avoid the border issues going to extremes and ruining their relationship?
Fu: Both China and India are rising developing countries. Having shared core interests and stable border areas would help their own development and should become their strategic goal. This has been realized by high-level officials from both sides. Although there's misunderstanding and mistrust between the two countries, I believe the situation is within control.
Nalapat: So far, there has not been a "hot war" between the two sides since 1962. Even in the 1987 Sumdurong Chu tensions, the two sides did not resort to firing, thereby disappointing many outside forces, who wanted India and China to once again resort to the use of force.
The Chinese side has shown sincerity in its desire for peace, just as the Indian side has, by refusing to be provoked by outside powers into resorting to force.
GT: Indian Defense Minister A. K. Antony said his government has proposed a mechanism involving all stakeholders, including paramilitary forces, the military and the foreign ministry, to settle the border issues between the two countries. Do you think such a mechanism could help?
Nalapat: I have the deepest respect for Antony, however, the border issues between China and India are not simply a matter for those in uniform, on both sides, to settle. There has to be a comprehensive creation of trust between the two sides before the border issues get resolved, and for this, there must be a huge multiplication of contacts.
Millions of Chinese tourists and students should come to India, the tourists to see the homeland of the Buddha and the students to learn English at a cost many times cheaper than if they go to the UK. Trade should rise from $60 billion at present to $200 billion, a figure that is easily within reach, and can go even higher. Cultural and media links need to expand, for example in the movie industry.
GT: India is close to finalizing a second contract with Russia for tactical transport helicopters. India also plans to test its intercontinental ballistic missiles, often termed "China Killers." Does India consider China its "imaginary enemy?"
Nalapat: Every military wants an "enemy" so as to substantiate its claim for more resources. I do not think the people of India see China as an enemy, just as I do not agree with the view in the US or the EU that the Chinese people regard India as a foe. However, if it becomes clear that China is not an enemy, then the argument for buying tens of billions of dollars of military equipment will become weaker.
GT: India's advances in the South China Sea met with criticism from some India experts who think the US is using India to suppress China. Is this the mainstream voice in India now? What do you think of the relationship between China, India and the US as the US takes its step to Asia?
Fu: India's advances into South China Sea show the fears India holds toward China. But actually, China has more power to face such confrontational competition in the Indian Ocean and South Asian areas. China doesn't have to worry about India swinging to the US, as India should be aware that this wouldn't be good for India's own development from a global perspective.
The US has to take both China and India into consideration when stepping into Asia, and the US will do more to pull India over to its side to suppress China. There won't be any conspicuous coalition between any two of the three, but veiled strife will continue.
Nalapat: China has a much stronger and more comprehensive relationship with the US than India has, or will have for a long time.
Those in India who argue for a policy of seeking US support against China are wrong.
The geopolitics between China and the US are not the same as between the USSR and the US. In the latter case, trade was low, and people-to-people contacts very limited. There is a strong Chinese-American community in the US that wants to see peaceful cooperation rather than confrontation.
Hence those in India who argue for a policy of seeking US support against China are wrong. China is much more important to the US than India and will remain so for a long time.
As for the South China Sea, the resource potential of the region is crucial for India's economic development. Hence for commercial reasons, Indian companies will get intensively involved in the South China Sea, without taking sides on local disputes.
I am sure that the wise leadership in China will understand that Indian intentions in the region are peaceful and will therefore restrain those in China who seek to make the US and the EU happy by creating tension with India.
