New rules requiring real-name registration by users of Weibo, the country's microblogging services, could drive users away and hamper development of China's nascent social networking industry, analysts said Sunday.
"Although the new system is intended to promote a proper environment on the Internet, it may deter users, particularly overseas users, from registering for Weibo services if their ID numbers are required," Fang Xingdong, founder and CEO of Chinese blog portal Bokee, told the Global Times.
"The verification cost will also be too high for many microblog operators," he noted.
His remarks came after the Beijing municipal government announced new rules Friday requiring Web users to register on Chinese microblogging platforms with their real names and ID numbers before they are allowed to publish posts.
The rules are expected to be fully implemented within three months in the capital, where the country's largest microblog platforms, including Sina and Sohu, are located.
It remained unclear whether the rules would be extended to other cities such as Shenzhen, where Tencent, a major rival to Sina and Sohu, is located.
But analysts expected other cities to follow Beijing's path and institute similar rules.
Major microblog operators including Sina and Sohu over the weekend expressed their confidence in the further development of the services after the system is implemented.
China has more than 480 million Web users and the number of its microbloggers surged by 208.9 percent from last year to 250 million by October.
Sina has more than 200 million Weibo users, including 300,000 verified users, Sina CEO Cao Guowei said last month.
"The government's effort to emphasize the real-name system could scare users, especially inexperienced users or those who still have a wait-and-see attitude to using the service," said Sun Yongjie, a Beijing-based Internet commentator.
"It's too hasty to roll out the rules, given that China's microblog industry is still in its infancy," he noted.
However, Cao Junbo, an analyst with iResearch, an Internet media consulting agency based in Shanghai, told the Global Times that the system's impact on the microblog industry may be limited.
"The microblog industry has already passed the stage of rapid growth, and important or active users have already registered for the service," he said.
Shares in Sina fell by 11 percent early Friday but rebounded to close at $55.05, a 4.26 percent gain.
