Hard-line Clinton makes Trump more popular among Chinese public
News of a decisive victory in the Indiana primary that clears Donald Trump's path to the Republican presidential nomination has prompted Chinese analysts to predict how Sino-U.S. relations would be impacted if Trump becomes president.
Trump on Tuesday won the Indiana primary, driving his chief rival Texas Senator Ted Cruz out of the presidential nomination race. One other candidate, John Kasich, governor of Ohio, on Wednesday said he has decided to suspend his presidential campaign, NBC News reported.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton continues to lead the nomination race against Senator Bernie Sanders, which leaves many believing that there will ultimately be a Clinton-Trump race for the White House.
Eight Chinese analysts interviewed by the Global Times on Wednesday gave different predictions as to whether Trump could triumph over Clinton, with four believing that Trump's odds are slight.
"Trump has a 30 percent chance of becoming president. He has to overcome a number of thresholds to win the Republican nomination first," Zhu Feng, executive director and professor at the China Center for Collaborative Studies of the South China Sea, told the Global Times.
But Shao Yuqun, director of the Center for American Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, told the Global Times that the odds of Trump being able to gain at least 50 percent of the votes are increasing just as voters' anger and distrust against the Obama administration grows.
Analysts also mentioned that lack of support from the mainstream in the U.S. and Trump's unpopularity among some GOP members due to his bold remarks may be to his disadvantage.
According to Fox News, in his Tuesday speech, Trump spoke of the urgent need for unity within the Republican Party, saying that "it's so much easier if we have it."
A New York Times/CBS News national poll released on March 21 found that 46 percent of Republican primary voters said they would like to see Trump win the GOP nomination, more than at any point since he declared his candidacy in June.
Absurd political views
"Unlike other politicians, Trump has impressed the public with his own political views, although most sound absurd. Chinese scholars have different views on Trump because of the controversial personal style he displayed in the election race. He surprised people by going so far," Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times on Wednesday.
Wu said that as a maverick nominee, Trump would make the final election unpredictable.
According to a March poll conducted by huanqiu.com, the Chinese website affiliated with the Global Times, 54 percent of the 3,300 voters polled said they liked Trump.
Some experts said some Chinese people's preference for Trump comes from concern over Clinton's tough stance toward China.
Jia Qingguo, dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University, said that it is understandable that Trump is more popular than Clinton since the latter has often criticized China on cyber security and human rights.
Others, like Diao Daming, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said it is too early to draw any conclusions based on online surveys.
"Most Chinese know little about Trump's political views or the U.S. election. They regard Trump as an entertainer, not a serious politician," Diao noted.
Six of the eight analysts agreed that the result of the final election would have limited influence on Sino-U.S. relations due to the existing closeness in bilateral economic relations.
But Wang Yiwei, a foreign affairs scholar at the Renmin University of China, told the Global Times that it may benefit Sino-U.S. relations if Trump is elected, given his isolationist foreign policy.
"As a businessman, Trump is a realist and advocates the exchange of interests, which could help Sino-U.S. relations make some substantial progress," Diao further noted.
