Resolution comes four days before Tsai takes office
The U.S. House of Representatives on Monday passed a bipartisan measure to reaffirm the "Six Assurances" to Taiwan, the guidelines used in conducting relations between the U.S. and Taiwan, four days before Tsai Ing-wen, chairwoman of Taiwan's pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), takes office.
Analysts believe the move is a gesture from the U.S. to uphold its commitment to Taiwan but warned that Taiwan should not over-interpret the message as the U.S. would not bleed for the island.
The U.S. House of Representatives on Monday passed the "concurrent resolution" of supporting Taiwan "without demur," adding that the "Taiwan Relation Act (TRA)" and the "Six Assurances" are the "cornerstone of the U.S.-Taiwan relation[ship]," Taiwan-based Taiwan Central News Agency reported Tuesday.
The "Six Assurances" were put forward by former U.S. President Ronald Reagan as part of his efforts to consolidate U.S. support to the island.
Under the guidelines, the U.S. would not set a date for ending arms sales to Taiwan, would not revise the TRA, would not hold prior consultations with the Chinese mainland regarding arms sales to Taiwan, would not play a mediation role between the mainland and Taiwan, would not pressure Taiwan to enter into negotiations with the mainland and would not formally recognize the mainland's sovereignty over Taiwan.
"The resolution reflects the internal ideas of some U.S. politicians who are hostile toward China and wish to interfere with the Taiwan issue," said Jin Canrong, vice director of the School of International Studies at the Renmin University of China.
However, Jin said that a House concurrent resolution only represents the attitude of the U.S. House of Representatives, and does not require the approval of the U.S. president. Therefore it lacks the force of laws and fails to stand for the stance of the U.S. government.
"The U.S., together with its 'Six Assurances' and the TRA, are the main external reasons that have been interfering with cross-Straits relations and blocking solutions to the Taiwan issue," said Xiu Chunping, a professor of Taiwan studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
"It shows the balancing strategy of the U.S., that it is always trying to play the role of a judge in the cross-Straits relationship, and it is a frequent ruse to let the Chinese mainland and Taiwan contain each other so the U.S. can benefit most from the situation," Yu Xintian, director of Shanghai's Taiwan Research Institute, told the Global Times.
No change to status quo
The 2016 China Military Power Report released Friday by the U.S. Department of Defense said that "the U.S. opposes any unilateral change to the status quo in the Taiwan Straits by either side and does not support Taiwan independence," a stance the Pentagon has not affirmed since 2007.
"Some individuals in the DPP hold the fantasy that the U.S. would help Taiwan if conflict breaks out. However, the Pentagon's position is actually telling them the U.S. would not bleed for Taiwan," Yu said.
His opinion was echoed by Jin, who said that compared with the resolution, U.S. re-affirmation of the one-China stance is more meaningful, which shows the U.S. government knows which side weighs more and how serious the issue is.
"The U.S., by passing such a resolution, is putting pressure on China, because it does not want to see China's uncompromising stance on the Taiwan issue," Xiu said, adding that the U.S. is sending the wrong signal to Taiwan that they are in support of Taiwan's "independence" activities.
"If the passing of this resolution was overly interpreted and abused by Taiwan independence activists, it would have severe consequences to cross-Straits relations, which would in the end also damage the interests of the U.S. itself," Xiu said, adding that the U.S. would have to bear the brunt of those consequences.
Watching Tsai's tone
Tsai is scheduled to assume office on Friday. The Chinese mainland is closely watching Tsai's tone toward the 1992 Consensus in her inauguration speech.
The 1992 Consensus endorses the one-China principle and is seen by the mainland as the foundation for the peaceful development of cross-Straits ties.
The U.S. has expectations and beliefs on Tsai, because they deem Tsai as a reasonable, pro-U.S. politician who has popular support. The U.S. also lacks someone to represent their interests from the Taiwan side, Yu said.
As a response to the constraint from the U.S., China should have more detailed policies and multilayered strategies, Yu said.
