Duterte's response difficult to call: expert
Bilateral ties between China and the Philippines will be further challenged after the forthcoming ruling of an arbitration case filed by the Philippines against China, some observers said.
The ruling will be issued on July 12, The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague announced on June 29, a day before the Philippines' new president took office.
The subtle timing, together with the urgency to respond left to a new Philippine administration, shows that the court, or forces behind the case, intends to bind the ruling to the new government's future strategy on the South China Sea, Li Kaisheng, an associate research fellow at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times.
How the Philippines' newly elected president Rodrigo Duterte and his administration respond after the ruling is difficult to call, considering the ruling's nuances, experts said.
China reiterated that "the government holds a consistent and clear position of not accepting nor recognizing any ruling…," foreign ministry spokesperson Hong Lei said at a daily briefing on Thursday.
"The so-called ruling will not affect China's territorial claims and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea," Hong added.
Though China has a tough stance and will not concede on its maritime interests, experts noted the ruling will also put China in a difficult situation.
China will be accused of "disrespecting international law" for its stance on the ruling, while any countermeasures in the South China Sea might be labeled as "a big power bullying small countries," Li elaborated.
"China should strengthen its voice in the international community in justifying its stance, and also expose the arbitration's nature as a "political farce and political provocation," said Wang Xiaopeng, a maritime border expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Meanwhile, China should strengthen efforts to protect its maritime interests, including regular naval and coast guard patrols to further highlight the effectiveness of China's maritime law enforcement, said Wang.
Two conferences on the South China Sea issue were held this month by Chinese and foreign think tanks in Washington, DC and The Hague, attended by officials and experts on international law and foreign relations.
Dai Bingguo, China's former state councilor in charge of foreign affairs, said on Tuesday at the Washington, DC forum that the arbitration ruling will be "nothing more than a piece of paper" and warned against any attempt to enforce the ruling.
Post-ruling options
Despite China's tough stance, the Philippine government is unlikely to withdraw the case, as the ruling could serve as a bargaining chip in negotiations with China, said Li.
Pressure from some domestic scholars, social elites and politicians who support former Philippine President Benigno Aquino III, as well as pressure from the US, remain a concern for Duterte's government, experts noted.
Philippine Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio also said in April that the Philippines might acquire warships, warplanes and missiles against China if the country takes countermeasures to the ruling, which will add tensions to the region, the Philippine News Agency reported.
However, confrontations are the last thing Duterte expects to happen, especially faced with slower economic growth and social problems, said experts.
The Philippines is "preoccupied with the Duterte government's campaign against illegal drugs and possible efforts to sabotage the Duterte government through political subterfuge," Herman Tiu Laurel, a host on the Manila-based Global News Network, said in an e-mail.
He added that it's promising that the two countries will proceed with formal talks soon after diplomatic back-channeling gets rolling.
Meanwhile, the Philippines will not hype the ruling, which will certainly anger Beijing and cause harsher countermeasures that will hurt both sides, said Li.
Duterte said the country would proceed accordingly after it obtains a copy of the judgment, and would base its decisions on the Philippines' greater interests, said AP.
The widely-circulated Philippine Daily Inquirer on Monday ran an editorial saying the Philippines can avail itself of the infrastructure lending program being offered by the Beijing-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to finance the country's massive infrastructure needs.
Unlike Aquino, Duterte has repeatedly expressed his openness to bilateral talks since he was sworn in on June 30, the Xinhua News Agency reported.
However, if the Philippines proposes starting bilateral negotiations based on the arbitration case, China is unlikely to accept it, added Li.
