Absentee ballots could decide election: report
U.S. voters living in China shrugged off the FBI's intent to revisit Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's e-mail scandal as "irrelevant" after recent polls indicate a tightening race a week before the general election.
Robert Hareland, U.S. Embassy consul in Beijing, told the Global Times that more than 250,000 potential U.S. voters live in China and more than 2,000 have mailed in their ballots to the U.S. Embassy.
Hareland said the embassy is unaware of the number of Americans in China who may have mailed or faxed their ballots directly to the U.S., voted online through the U.S. Defense Department's Federal Voting Assistance Program (FVAP) or if they flew to the U.S. to vote.
"I believe the number of overseas ballots will hit a record, which is estimated in the millions," said Ada, a Chinese-American leader of Democrats Abroad in China and Vote from Abroad. Ada told the Global Times that about 30-40 volunteers have assisted thousands of U.S. citizens to vote in Beijing, Shanghai and Chengdu.
"Nobody feels super excited about voting for either candidate from the two major parties," said Nick Compton, a five-year expat working for a Beijing-based education organization. He voted for Clinton in Iowa, even if he thinks she is more of the same old system in a lot of ways.
Compton called the election "a circus, a media spectacle."
Celia (pseudonym), a Chinese-American working in public relations in Beijing, called it a "farce" after watching the three presidential debates. Celia is expected to waver, as well as Chloe Cheung, a café owner from California, who said she doubts the candidates' leadership qualities and personality.
"Odds are Hillary will win," said Matt Haldane, a technology journalist with a Shenzhen-based company who has lived in China for three years. "Populist candidates like Trump tend to lose and be forgotten in U.S. history."
Compton said he believes that Clinton has a 70-75 percent chance of winning even if many Americans are fed up with establishment politics.
Many Chinese citizens do not trust and dislike Clinton because she lacks pragmatism and criticizes China on many issues, while Trump is a businessman who would focus on economic ties with China, Compton added.
"Perhaps those who support Trump want a buffoon in charge to ensure China's continued growth as a world super power," said Compton. "But Trump is the wrong choice."
"I suspect the FBI's move will affect some polls this week, but it's unlikely to affect the outcome of the election," said Haldane.
Haldane said his home state of Massachusetts allows him to submit an absentee ballot online, which is what he has done.
"The problem for anyone trying to derail a Clinton presidency is that there isn't much left about her that people don't know, and she's running against the most unpopular and arguably most unqualified candidate in U.S. history," Haldane added, questioning whether any surprises like an FBI probe or leaks by Julian Assange will matter.
Overseas votes to have big impact
According to a report last month by Oxford University's Rothermere American Institute (RAI), overseas voters stand to have the biggest impact and "just a few thousand votes" could be enough for either candidate to win swing states.
After FBI director James Comey sent the "deeply troubling" letter to lawmakers on Friday, revealing e-mails linked to the former probe into Clinton's private e-mail server, an ABC/Washington Post tracking poll released on Sunday found Republican candidate Donald Trump has closed the gap with Clinton to within a percentage point from Clinton's 12-point lead last week.
The RAI report pointed out that some pollsters' predictions could be significantly off, noting that the decline in domestic support for Trump could mean overseas voters could help push Clinton over the top in certain states.
Rick Dunham, a former president of the U.S. National Press Club as a visiting professor living in China for more than three years, said he believes that the FBI's move clearly has hurt Clinton among independent voters who already dislike both candidates, and may have changed their perception of Trump.
The result of the continuing e-mail revelations is that President Hillary Clinton will take office under a legal cloud, with Republicans calling for new investigations from the day she becomes president, said Dunham.
