Seasonal factors may cause moderate gains
Domestic consumer prices might rise "moderately" in the fourth quarter due to seasonal factors, but dramatic fluctuation is unlikely, officials and experts said on Thursday.
Li Pumin, secretary-general of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the top economic planner, said during a press conference on Thursday that China's consumer prices are likely to rise on seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, according to a post on the NDRC's website.
"The weather is turning colder and more holidays are coming, which would cause the prices of agricultural products to go up," he noted.
But he excluded the possibility of any "dramatic" price hikes in the last quarter of the year.
Liu Xuezhi, an analyst at the Bank of Communications, told the Global Times on Thursday that the trend of consumer prices depends on the general economic climate.
"Downward pressure on the domestic economy is likely to continue and that might influence the consumer price index (CPI) level. But the latter is not likely to fluctuate too greatly, as China is likely to maintain 7 percent annual economic growth," he noted.
Tian Yun, chief editor of the China Macroeconomic Information Network, also told the Global Times on Thursday that the CPI wouldn't fluctuate too much in the fourth quarter.
"The government has been resolute in stabilizing domestic consumer prices. The NDRC will also take measures to encourage investment and stimulate demand," he noted.
The CPI, a main gauge of inflation, edged up 1.6 percent year-on-year in September, down from a reading of 2.0 percent in August, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced on Wednesday.
According to Li, inflation slowed on a monthly basis in September, mainly because the prices of pork and vegetables didn't rise as sharply as in the previous month.
Experts said that inflation in September was "on a stable track".
September's CPI rose 0.1 percent compared with August. Food prices rose 2.7 percent year-on-year in September, down from 3.7 percent in August, the NBS said. The increase in the price of pork, a key barometer of inflation, eased from 19.6 percent in August to 17.4 percent in September.
Non-food price inflation went up by 1 percent in September, down from 1.1 percent in August.
