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Economy

China can accept, attain 6.5-pct annual growth in 2016-2020: experts(2)

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2015-10-28 09:06Xinhua Editor: Gu Liping

A falling working population, likely to see annual declines of 0.3 percent in the next five years, will mark the end of a demographic dividend and weigh on the slowing economy. China's hard battle against environmental pollution will also affect economic expansion, Chang added.

While recognizing headwinds, Chang believes China is capable of attaining 6.5-percent annual growth in the next five years.

China's speeding urbanization will foster domestic demand, Chang said. He expects urban residents will account for 60 percent of the total population by 2020, up from 54.77 percent last year. The opening up of the economy, including the Belt and Road initiative, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and free trade agreements, will provide fresh momentum for the economy.

China's overall reform, with greater daring and resolution, will break vested interests and bring vitality to the economy, Chang said.

Tan agreed. He said reforms will be pivot to refuel the economy, as reforms in state-owned enterprises and financial sector will give a fresh push to the economy.

The expectations of lower growth target do not mean the economy will slip as pro-growth measures have started to take effect in multiple industries, Tan said.

Despite weaker traditional industries such as steel and cement production, technology-intensive industries and sectors related to consumption and environmental protection are stepping on the fast track. The high-tech sector grew 10.4 percent year on year in the first nine months, outpacing China's general industrial output by 4.2 percentage points.

"Once emerging and high-tech sectors gather full strength, they will prop up the economy and help it maintain medium-to-high level growth," Tan said.

China's economic structure has also been improving with the rise of tertiary industry, which is more efficient, energy-saving and can provide more jobs. In the first three quarters, the value added of the service sector accounted for 51.4 percent of GDP, up 2.3 percentage points from the same period last year.

The government is promoting an economy led by the service sector, rather than traditional engines like manufacturing.

Chang said the government should continue to prioritize employment, prevent systemic risks in corporate and local government debts and hold the bottom line of 6.5-percent economic growth.

In 2015, the government rolled out a string of pro-growth measures to tackle economic slowdown, by promoting monetary easing, stepping up infrastructure construction and nurturing new growth points.

The People's Bank of China, the central bank, cut the benchmark one-year lending and deposit rates and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) on Oct. 23 to shore up the economy, marking the fifth RRR reduction and the sixth round of interest cuts since last year. The move will further reduce financing burdens on enterprises and serve as a boon for the real economy.

  

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