China's annual steel exports are likely to fall to 70 to 80 million tonnes in the long term, leading rating agency Fitch said Tuesday.
In 2014, the country's steel exports reached 93.8 million tonnes.
In the future, more steel production capacity will become outdated mainly because of market demand rather than tough government policies, Fitch said in a research note.
Earlier tough environmental policies have driven many small mills to close, and more struggling steel makers will be under further pressure as anti-pollution measures increase costs, it said.
China will add 16 million tonnes of new steel capacity each year in 2016 and 2017 while shutting down 75 to 85 million tonnes of outdated capacity in the next five years, it said, predicting a capacity peak in 2016.
China's steel industry is struggling with excess capacity as the slowing economy cuts demand.
The Belt and Road Initiative could help address the issue as China is expected to invest in infrastructure in participating countries, the rating agency said.
