Record new yuan loans in January were a result of an unusual combination of factors, and the trend of Chinese taking on more debt is unlikely to last, financial services company UBS has predicted.
January's new yuan-denominated lending jumped 71 percent year on year to 2.51 trillion yuan (385 billion U.S. dollars).
UBS said in a report that this was down to credit demand ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year, rising yuan borrowing to offset maturing or repaid foreign exchange liabilities, and pent-up demand from banks for unusually loose new annual bank loan quotas.
The report also pointed to the central bank's continued guidance on "prudent credit expansion" as another reason the trend will not last.
Meanwhile, the data proved the central bank was successful in ensuring sufficient liquidity at home despite pressure from yuan depreciation and capital outflows, UBS said.
The company does not expect significant yuan depreciation and it forecasted the country's foreign exchange reserves would stay above 2.8 trillion U.S. dollars this year.
Two more additional benchmark interest rate cuts and multiple reserve requirement ratio cuts this year will counter the economic slowdown as well as deflationary pressures, UBS said.
