An exhibitor from Taiwan makes tea for visitors during a cross-Straits expo in Wuyishan, Fujian province. Zhang Guojun / Xinhua
Last year, cross-Straits trade volume reached $188.56 billion, and about 40 percent of tourists visiting Taiwan came from the mainland, which is also the island's largest investment source and its prime export destination.
Reflecting the advanced development in exchanges across the Straits, nearly 100,000 Taiwan companies have set up operations on the mainland, while last year alone, 9 million people traveled across the Straits in various capacities.
Tsai is replacing Ma Ying-jeou, from the mainland-friendly Kuomintang, as Taiwan's top leader. She has said that once she takes office, she will expand the island's export markets to Southeast Asia and attract more tourists from countries in that region.
But mainland-based Taiwan businesspeople say the challenge lies in the fact that change won't happen that soon.
Steve Lai, executive director of the Supply Management Institute in Taiwan, said: "From what we've heard ... transformation can't happen that quickly. Until major changes to the island's export trends occur, Taiwan dearly needs the mainland market."
With observers waiting to hear Tsai's comments on cross-Straits relations in her inauguration speech, Taiwan businesspeople said her main challenge is to find the "political language" that can please Beijing.
Beijing has called repeatedly for Taipei to continue peaceful development of cross-Straits relations, adding that it must accept the 1992 Consensus — that the mainland and Taiwan belong to "one China".
On May 5, People's Daily said in an editorial that if Tsai refuses to accept the 1992 Consensus, this will be considered an act that jeopardizes cross-Straits relations. The editorial, which set an unprecedentedly serious tone, has been viewed as a warning from Beijing toward Taiwan's new government.
During the annual session of China's top legislature in March, President Xi Jinping told lawmakers that the mainland's policy toward Taiwan is clear and consistent, and it will not change with Taiwan's political situation.
Ni Yongjie, deputy director of Shanghai's Taiwan Research Institute, said the mainland has sent a strong signal to Taiwan authorities that accepting the 1992 Consensus is the premise for further developing cross-Straits relations.
Zhang Zhijun, head of the State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office, said in March that cross-Straits relations could be affected by unknown factors. He urged Tsai to clarify her understanding of these ties.
But observers said that Tsai and the DPP appear to prefer political ambiguity in an attempt to maintain the status quo in cross-Straits ties.
Lai said, "From what I understand, Beijing doesn't allow such ambiguity." As a result, cross-Straits relations are now "stuck'' and it will take great wisdom from both sides to resolve the issue. If not, there are likely to be consequences for the economies on both sides of the Straits, and "this may be particularly hurtful to Taiwan," Lai said.
There are measures Beijing can take to punish Taiwan — for example, by squeezing the flow of mainland tourists to the island, he said.
Hopefully, both governments won't jeopardize the momentum built up over the years and will adopt pragmatic approaches that benefit both economies, he said.
