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Economy

China's economy shows signs of stabilizing, but risks remain(2)

1
2016-11-14 16:24Xinhua Editor: Mo Hong'e ECNS App Download

UNCERTAINTIES

Although analysts believe that the government's 6.5-percent baseline target for GDP growth this year is firmly within reach, they have voiced concerns over the property sector and fear trade friction with the U.S. under the future President Donald Trump.

While property investment growth quickened in October to its highest since April 2014, some have suggested it could be due to a last-minute push by developers to complete construction projects as home sales and surging prices start to slow.

"China's real estate sector is at a turning point as policy controls are ratcheted up. When the slowdown in property sales and investment comes, it will take a chunk out of demand as real estate accounts for about 20 percent of China's GDP," said Tom Orlik, Bloomberg Chief Asia Economist.

October exports and imports also fell more than expected, adding to fears that the situation could worsen if trade friction with the United States increases.

President-elect Trump has threatened a 45 percent tariff on imports from China. Protectionist measures from the United States would undoubtedly throw China's exports further off track, dealing a blow to growth.

With risks coming down the line, it seems likely that China's policy makers will take a cautious approach to withdrawing stimulus, Orlik said.

China's top leaders are due to map out economic and reform plans for 2017 at the annual Central Economic Work Conference in December.

  

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