Rana Mitter, professor of the history and politics of modern China at the University of Oxford
A1 Statements made so far show that China's leadership is aware of the issues and the need for reform. This year, there will need to be more action in terms of reforming SOEs to operate under market conditions. In addition, there will need to be more attention paid to a graduated solution to China's corporate debt problems.
A2 There will inevitably be a trade-off between managing to achieve a smooth but slower rate of growth in China and its role as a driver of the global economy. However, uncertainty will also be damaging, so China's economic leaders will need to make it clear what their intended short-term economic plans for reform are in practice.
A3 There are likely to be new opportunities in the US market as the Trump administration switches to infrastructure promotion, even though this is likely to promote inflation. China will need to maintain strong growth in domestic consumption, but should be wary about simply pumping more cash into creating easy credit. A graduated policy of dealing with debt will, inevitably, lead to a slowdown, but it should be managed carefully.
Robert Kagiri, a leading economist at the Africa Policy Institute
A1 China is on track with its reforms as it continues with its supply-side structural reform. In order to push forward in this direction, it will need to redefine and transform the role of the government in resource allocation. There is also a need to control and rein in debt levels and stabilize its currency.
A2 China will continue to be a key driver of the world economy. However, its economic restructuring and economic slowdown will marginally reduce that role, though it shall continue to be the key driver of global growth for at least the next five years. Its economic restructuring and expected growth slowdown this year will therefore not shake that leadership role.
A3 China's growth prospects will continue to be positive this year. For China to maintain stable growth while accelerating reform, it will need to improve quality standards and innovations that are responsive to market needs. This involves upgrading its traditional industries to the highest global standards and development of a modern competitive service sector.
