Mauro F. Guillen, a professor of international management and director of the Lauder Institute at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
A1 The Chinese economy has not only become a manufacturing powerhouse, but it has become a service economy. China will need reform to ensure its economy grows. So competitiveness is important. Until now, China has been competing on the basis of relatively low wages, so from now on, it will compete on the basis of innovation. China has been doing well in certain industries such as telecommunications, but it still has to do more in, for example, energy and retail, in the Chinese market.
There are many other areas in the next year or two that may need more reforms. One is the financial services and banking sector. The other one is to make sure that the infrastructure for the domestic consumer market develops, so that the Chinese economy can be more balanced over time.
The problem with the domestic market is that there are all sorts of regulations, not only at the national level, but also at provincial and local level. They will need to be better coordinated to make sure the domestic market is big and efficient. That should be the goal of reform when it comes to distribution and retail.
A2 Emerging markets have been contributing to most of the world's growth. Japan and Europe, and recently the US, were not growing that much. China used to contribute more than 30 percent to world growth, which is still quite large. It's positive. It's really important for China to continue growing, but with less exports and more domestic consumption.
As China grows more through domestic consumption, that will also contribute to global growth. It's just that the source of growth will be internal rather than external. It's the best way to make sure the Chinese economy continues to grow at a rate of about 6 to 7 percent.
A3 The growth rate in China will probably be between 6 and 7 percent. Depending on the outcome of some events, like the elections and the timing of the Fed's interest rate increases, the Chinese economy could grow a little less or a little more. It's important to continue the structural reforms, especially to reduce China's dependence on exports as a source of growth. One important issue will be that US president-elect Donald Trump has been talking about protectionism. It's important for the Chinese government and companies to keep their options open and to have in mind alternative markets in which they could sell their products in case the U.S. becomes more protectionist.
Song Won Sohn, a professor of economics at California State University Channel Islands in Camarillo, California
A1 China has been making progress in structural reforms, but more needs to be done. First, the transition from investment and exports to domestic consumption must proceed at a faster pace. Second, China's corporate sector is too leveraged, presenting danger to the entire financial system. Third, the private sector should grow faster at the expense of State-owned enterprises. Last, the financial market reform, which has gone well so far, must continue.
A2 As China contributes so much to global economic growth, how the Chinese economy performs in 2017 is of crucial importance to almost every country around the world. Most likely, China's economic growth in 2017 will slow to around 6 to 6.5 percent.
While economic growth is important, structural reforms are equally important. The government must balance the two objectives carefully.
A3 Clearly, the risk is on the downside for China's economic growth in 2017. Both monetary and fiscal policies have been fairly stimulative, and further stimulus could lead to problems in the financial markets.
Many of China's SOEs have borrowed too much from State-owned banks. Higher debt means SOEs will have to spend more to pay the debt instead of investing in productive areas. The sources of economic growth are very important. The private sector should grow faster than SOEs.
Nicholas Lardy, Anthony M. Solomon senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington
A1 To me, supply-side structural reform is all about improving efficiency. The most urgent task is to slim down the money-losing firms by reducing their claim on fiscal and financial resources. This has the added side benefit of slowing the growth of credit and reducing financial risks.
A2 Yes, China is still contributing about 30 percent, more than it did when its growth was more than 10 percent in 2010. This is due to two factors: First, its economy is much larger, and, second, global growth has slowed quite a bit.
A3 I am not expecting much of a slowdown next year, it should be in the 6 to 7 percent range. Maybe it would be less than this year's likely 6.7 percent, but a fall of a couple of tenths of a percentage point is not really much of a slowdown.
Zhou Bajun, a senior research fellow of Hong Kong-based China Everbright Holdings
A1 The central government decided at its annual Economic Work Conference to deepen supply-side structural reform in 2017 and give priority to reducing bubbles in the real-estate market. This will help change the way it has boosted economic growth and steer the national economy onto a new track for sustained medium-to-high growth.
A2 With the pace of economic recovery picking up next year, more interest rate hikes by the Fed will push the exchange rate of the greenback higher, while that of the renminbi will fall further and negatively affect China's imports and overseas investment. Generally speaking, the US contribution to overall growth of the world economy will probably increase, while China's will likely decrease next year, both by 1 or 2 percentage points. But China will remain the top contributor.
A3 I expect the adjustment of the global situation to deepen in 2017. The refusal by the U.S., the EU and Japan to recognize China's market economy status according to Article 15 of the World Trade Organization agreement they signed 15 years ago means the profound readjustment of the global situation will be even deeper, and that the Doha Round of WTO talks is all but dead. Trade friction between China and the US, on the other hand, will intensify after Donald Trump takes over the White House.
China must respond to such challenges as best it can to ensure the 2017 growth goals set by the central government at the annual Economic Work Conference will be reached.
To do so, I suggest another round of domestic demand stimulation measures similar to those seen in 2009 be taken next year, while the supply-side structural reform should continue to greater depth. It is also necessary to quicken the pace of negotiations over the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership as well as advance more bilateral trade and investment talks aimed at enhancing friendly ties with other countries.
