Eugene Qian, China country head and chairman, UBS Group.
A1 We see China's GDP growth sliding from 6.7 percent this year to 6.4 percent in 2017, as another property downturn sees construction and related investment decelerate further, offset largely by a modest export recovery and government-led infrastructure investment. Consumption may slow modestly on slower income growth but should remain resilient.
We believe risks are broadly balanced. Key upside risks include property activity staying strong for longer and stronger-than-expected policy stimulus in 2017. Downside risks include: a sharper property adjustment, infrastructure investment falling short due to lack of investable projects, weaker exports due to softer global growth or rising protectionism, and a resumption of large capital outflows which may heighten financial market volatility.
A2 We continue to embrace digitization by rolling out new technology to improve the client experience and the way we do business.
UBS aims to be a leader in sustainability in the financial industry and to make sustainability the everyday standard across the firm. It is today's capital allocation and investment choices that will shape the future. Investors are ready to put their money to work for a more sustainable future, UBS and other financial firms are ready to facilitate this process.
A3 In general, we believe the overall operating environment in the region will improve in 2017. We are cautiously optimistic about the business outlook for our overall China business.
A4 We expect continued monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the PBOC and capital outflows from China to weaken renminbi against the US dollar further in the coming years.
Our clients in China, both institutional clients and high net worth individuals, have increased demand for global asset allocation for diversification.
A5 We will continue to strategically invest in China.
We have announced that we plan to double headcount in China over the next five years. We have also recently expanded to Wuxi, Jiangsu province, with the opening of a new Business Solutions Center in November, in addition to our presence in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
