GAINING EXPERIENCE IN AVIATION
Shaking the dominance of giants Boeing and Airbus in the near future is unrealistic, as the experts have pointed out, but the Chinese jetliner could be a strong option for global carriers in decades to come.
"I believe that this first Chinese passenger airliner will find a niche, and will occupy an important place in the domestic Chinese market, as well as will start some kind of advance to the outside market," said Vasily Kashin, a senior research fellow at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies of the Moscow-based Higher School of Economics (HSE).
Kashin said that C919's development, production and operation will allow China to accumulate experience, and at the next stage, when a new airplane generation or a new significantly improved version of C919 is developed, to release a full-fledged competitor, which can challenge Boeing and Airbus.
"Using a number of existing advantages, including the possibility of some price reduction due to its own very large domestic market and the attraction of cheap credit resources from Chinese state-owned banks, China will be able to compete seriously with American and European producers and catch up with them," Kashin said.
FOCUSING ON DOMESTIC MARKET
A total of 23 foreign and domestic customers, including China's national carrier Air China, have placed orders for 570 aircraft, according to COMAC.
But this is only the very first step. Even in China's domestic market, COMAC has a long way to go to turn technical success into business success.
"Over the very long term COMAC is likely to become a major player in the airline segment," said Douglas Royce, senior aerospace analyst at Forecast International, an aerospace market research firm in the United States.
However, the expert also pointed out it is not something that will happen over the next decade, but rather a long-term process that will require ongoing support from the Chinese government.
At least in the early years of service, demand will be centered in the Chinese market and a few satellite markets, said Royce, adding that Airbus and Boeing have spent decades competing fiercely against each other and are lean and mean in the airliner market.
"The world market is so complex and competitive that it is difficult to hope that it will be possible to break into it immediately with a product that will beat all others and drive out all competitors," Kashin said, echoing Royce's remarks.
Boeing predicted last year that China will become the world's top aviation market within 20 years, projecting a demand for more than 6,000 new aircraft in the next two decades with a total value of 1 trillion U.S. dollars.
The C919 will be a strong competitor in this field as it is economical and comfortable, according to a research note from Guosen Securities.
