The import and export value of South China's Guangdong Province is expected to increase in 2017, with growth rate estimated to become 5 percent in yuan-denominated terms, according to a report released by Guangdong University of Foreign Studies over the weekend.
The growth represents a reserve from the province's foreign trade volume last year, which declined 0.8 percent year-on-year to 6.3 trillion yuan ($925.9 billion), the report noted.
One of the reasons behind the change is partly due to the global economy recovery, the rebound of global commodity price as well as the surge in domestic demand, which would drive up import volume, according to the report. Also, fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, such as the yuan's depreciation against the dollar, is likely to stimulate export volume this year, said the report.
Bai Ming, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, also highlighted the province's shifting trade structure in its expanding export value.
In 2016, general trade value has surpassed that of processing trade for the first time in Guangdong. And the report predicted that the province's general trade "will maintain a robust growth" while processing trade "continues to slow down" this year.
"Processing trade, which involves the export of low value-added manufacturing goods, has been a pillar in foreign trade in the Pearl River Delta for decades, and raising general trade volume indeed reflects the government's strategy of industrial upgrade and prioritizing trade quality," Bai told the Global Times on Sunday.
The report also predicted that private enterprises would "gradually be replacing the role of foreign companies and becoming one of the main sources of export growth."
Bai agreed. But he also noted that some of the labor-intensive foreign enterprises in Guangdong have ramped up transferring their factories to Southeastern countries where production factors are relatively cheap. "And this would pose uncertainties to its foreign trade this year."
"But such trend is unavoidable as the domestic economy enters a period of structural adjustment and the country's traditional advantage vanished yet new competitiveness has not been fully developed," Bai stressed.
