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Economy

Gov't financial meeting triggers stock overreaction(2)

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2017-07-19 09:42Global Times Editor: Li Yan ECNS App Download

The meeting stressed that finance should return to its origin in order to become a more supportive force for the real economy.

Deleveraging is not an easy thing to do, but should maintain a balance with liquidity growth as credit tightening might increase the financing cost for the real economy, said Dong.

Since 2016, the country has started to retract liquidity in the interbank market.

The transactions in the interbank market usually involve leveraging and contributing a large portion of debt in the financial sector, noted Xu.

Stable yuan

Although the stock market overreacted, the yuan still remains stable.

The central bank on July 4 reaffirmed that China should keep a "stable and neutral" monetary policy for the rest of 2017.

During the two-day financial meeting, the country also called for deepening reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism and for steady facilitation of the yuan's internationalization.

The yuan dropped about 6.5 percent against the dollar in 2016, its biggest annual drop since 1994, according to media reports. But then, the yuan rose 2.4 percent against the dollar in the first half of 2017.

In 2016, the yuan also fell to sixth place among the most used currencies globally, with a market share of 1.67 percent, down from 2.31 percent at the end of 2015, according to Xinhua on Saturday.

Over the past year, the Chinese yuan faced depreciation pressure, so any reforms on the exchange rate formation mechanism might therefore cause further depreciation, said Zhou of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

In the view of Zhou, China should grab the opportunity of further pushing forward reforms on the mechanism as the currency has become stable.

Experts believe that the yuan will maintain stability against the U.S. dollar in the coming years. Also, Zhou noted that the chance of a sharp depreciation of the yuan is slim because the currency is backed by the country's stable economic growth as well as large foreign exchange reserves.

China's foreign exchange reserves rose to $3.057 trillion in June, up 0.11 percent from the end of May, marking a fifth consecutive month of growth, according to a note posted on the website of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on July 7.

"Two-way fluctuation in the yuan will become normal while domestic reforms proceed," Zhou said.

Uncertainties such as the U.S. Federal Reserves' rate hike, China's growing local government debts and economic slowdown may also continue to weigh on external and internal environments, he noted.

China's GDP increased 6.9 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2017 to about 38.15 trillion yuan ($5.6 trillion), which is above the government's target of 6.5 percent for 2017, reflecting a firming trend.

"A stable economy is beneficial for yuan stability and is good for the internationalization of the currency," said Zhou.

Activities including continued financial opening-up and improved financial infrastructure will further increase the yuan's position in the world, experts say.

Market forces will play a "decisive role," while the government will not heavily intervene in the foreign exchange market in the future.

The internationalization of the Chinese currency will be pushed forward in a stable pace in the long run, despite a temporary setback in 2016 caused by a volatile exchange rate and capital outflow, according to a report released on Saturday by the International Monetary Institute under the Renmin University of China.

For 2016, the yuan internationalization index, an indicator used by the report, stood at 2.26, down 29.8 percent year-on-year.

The index gauged the internationalization level of the yuan from low to high, ranging from zero to 100.

The latest data for this year is not yet available to the public.

  

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