Macroeconomic turbulence is seen dragging the Hong Kong stock market down to third place in global initial public offerings in the first half of 2019, lagging behind the New York Stock Exchange and the tech-heavy Nasdaq, with Shanghai expected to rank No 4, according to top accounting firms.
By the end of June, Hong Kong is likely to have 76 IPOs on board, a sharp fall from the 101 IPOs recorded in the same period a year ago. But the total fundraising amount could rise 38 percent to HK$69.5 billion ($8.89 billion), the highest for the same period since 2015.
The IPO activity on the A-share market has slowed down. It is estimated that 64 companies will list in the first half raising a total of 60.4 billion yuan, down 35 percent by proceeds year-on-year.
Looking ahead, however, the potential secondary listing of e-commerce behemoth Alibaba in Hong Kong is likely to lift the morale of the market in the second half, since the offering size may exceed $10 billion, said Edward Au, co-leader of the national public offering group at Deloitte.
"It will be a good thing for Hong Kong, reflecting the (fact the) ecosystem of technology firms in the city is becoming more and more mature," said Au. "Different types of technology firms that have listed in the US, such as JD and Baidu, are likely to be motivated to come back to Hong Kong or (the) mainland by Alibaba."
The lack of super-large cap listings is seen as the major reason behind Hong Kong's weakness in IPO listings. In the first half of the year, the NYSE recorded three listings with over $1 billion raised, and Nasdaq saw two such listings. The Hong Kong and Shanghai stock markets only registered one each.
An IPO by logistics property developer ESR Cayman was delayed in Hong Kong earlier this month due to the uncertain climate caused by the Sino-US trade dispute and Brexit. That listing was supposed to raise about $1.24 billion.
As for Alibaba, it proposed a one-to-eight stock split last week to help in the issuance of new shares - a move usually taken by companies before new shares are issued.
Au said the highly anticipated listing of Alibaba will provide an "impulse" for Hong Kong to reclaim its IPO crown globally, especially if market sentiment is encouraging in the second half of the year.
Deloitte kept its full-year forecast of about 200 new listings in Hong Kong which would raise between HK$180 billion and HK$250 billion. Besides Alibaba, it also expected large offerings from a renowned overseas consumer brand and a mainland financial institution.
EY on the other hand reiterated its forecast of HK$200 billion to be raised in Hong Kong by the end of this year. It believes the number of IPOs could be less than expected, while the valuation of large firms will tend to be conservative.
The A-share market is expected to remain stable. EY believes the opening of the Shanghai STAR Market, known informally as the science and technology innovation board, will promote an active A-share IPO market in the second half of 2019.
"The launch of the STAR Market and the trial of the registration system are expected to bring about a certain number of IPOs. The proportion of listed companies in emerging industries will increase significantly," said Ringo Choi, EY's Asia-Pacific IPO leader.
"On the other hand, as the registration system has been implemented, stringent supervision remains unchanged. Delisting standards will be stricter and more companies will be delisted, but it will help improve the quality of listed companies," he added.
In addition, Choi said the national economic and technological development zones are expected to get listed in the year's second half.
