Reuters news agency published China's consumer price index (CPI) in May as 5.4 percent on the 8th of June, a full six days before the National Statistics Bureau (NSB) released the reading as 5.5 percent on Tuesday.
Reuters stunned news readers with its super-accurate prediction of China's economic data, after having correctly predicted China's consumer price index seven times since 2008.
One of its impressive predictions was in January of this year, when it quoted sources as saying, "Chinese inflation was lower than expected at 4.9 percent in the year to January," mainly a result of Chinese authorities rearranging the consumer price index (CPI) despite wide belief that a CPI of more than 5.0 was on the way.
The next day (February 25), the figure was announced on the official website of the NSB. Reuters had perfectly matched the prediction.
Reuters is not the only one. Dow Jones, Bloomberg news agency, domestic brokers and many so-called economists on the internet also seem to have an uncanny ability to predict economic data.
Inside job?
Sheng Laiyun, spokesman of the NSB, said at a press conference that the staff member responsible for the secretarial work of the NSB's administrative office is being probed for possibly leaking the data.
Sheng said the NSB holds a clear attitude toward leaks and supports the investigation.
Suspects will likely face criminal prosecution. Sheng said the NSB has improved its ability to protect the confidentiality of economic figures and is considering shortening the gap between their compilation and release.
Highly profitable guessing
Despite the announcement by the NSB, many believe more officials from other government bureaus could be involved, because guessing the numbers is a profitable business for individuals.
Getting economic data like GDP growth or the CPI in advance means a lot to brokers and analysts, who use the information to make preemptive moves toward profit making or loss control.
In the case of the CPI being lower than expected, for instance, one can buy shares to wait for a soaring market, or sell out shares to put a lid on his or her losses.
Every month, brokers and research institutions predict statistics and, at the end of the year, "star analysts who do a good job in the game can get 2 or 3 million yuan ($308,600-462,900) or more for their wallet," according to a trader.
Officials working at macroeconomic departments, such as the NSB, the Central Bank and the National Development and Reform Commission are treated as VIPs everywhere they go, the 21st Century Business Herald reported. Analysts with a government background are popular with brokers.
According to an interview with many insiders by xinhuanet.com, friends or former classmates are possible sources for data guessing. A prediction made by an economist, for instance, is seen as more authentic to brokers because the economist has a friend who works at the People's Bank of China, the Chinese central bank.
The practice of leaking data for personal gain has interrupted the market order and resulted in a loss of private investors. It has also impacted economic safety and government credibility.
"It challenges the central government's ability to establish a secure, fair and standard market," Tian Yun, an expert at the China Macro Economics Institute, said on Sunday.
Leaks new anti-graft task
The NSB has taken measures like shortening the time span between data discharge and announcement from 72 to 48 hours, and is considering expounding the feasibility of further shortening.
NSB data leaks in recent years have become a new task for the country's anti-corruption effort, Li Guoxian, vice director of the financial research center at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), said on his micro-blog.
Zhao Qingming, Chief economist at the China Construction Bank, said establishing a sound mechanism is the best measure for preventing data leaks. "Shortening the time span and reducing man power involved in the job are good for prevention," he said.
