Lower rate, heavier burden
The fertility rate in China underwent two dramatic changes in the past three decades, according to Chen Wei, a professor of demography at Renmin University.
The first change took place in the late 1970s, during which the rate dropped quickly. The second came in the 1990s, when the average fertility rate dipped below 2.1, so a change was needed to replace the population over time, Chen said.
Yet the state-level one-child policy remains unchanged, despite some small reforms due to local resistance (especially from the rural population), but local policies are under constant revision, said Liang Zhongtang, who is in charge of a "two-children" pilot project in Yicheng of North China's Shanxi Province.
Meanwhile, the call for relaxing the one-child restriction is gaining momentum in other Chinese cities – under new guidelines introduced earlier this year, Beijing couples composed of two only-children that give birth to a second child will be charged fines only if the mother is younger than 28 and the second child is born within four years of the first.
In the past, such couples had to pay a fifth of their annual income if they did not meet at least one of the above criteria.
Despite the relaxing of policies, the demographic changes in China reflect the side effects of the unchanged family planning policy.
According to the census in 2010, the proportion of mainland people aged 14 or younger was 16.6 percent, a fall of 6.29 percentage points from the 2000 census.
In Shanghai, the fertility rate (the total number of children a woman bears during her lifetime) is 0.8, among the world's lowest, according to official statistics. In most developed countries, a fertility rate of 2.1 is needed to replace the population over time.
The current average fertility rate in China is between 1.4 and 1.8, Mu said.
Mu called for a relaxation of the one-child policy throughout China and for every couple to be allowed to have two children. The policy has been credited in the past 30 years with easing short-term population pressures, but has placed greater stress on pension systems, led to fewer women than men in China and depleted the pool of able-bodied laborers.
