Suspect data, adjustment needed
The census figures showed China's total fertility rate in the past 15 years was only 1.5 percent. "If the figure is real, the rate in China is as low as Britain's and France's, and the policy in this country needs to be adjusted as soon as possible," said Wang Guangzhou, an analyst with the Scientific Socialism Research Institute who says he has suspicions about the census figures.
"In 2009, the population of people in the group aging from zero to 14 was reported as 258 million, while the new figure of this group from the sixth population census was 222 million. This means that, in a year, the number of people in this age range has decreased by 36 million, which is impossible," said Yuan Xin, another member of the Scientific Socialism Research Institute.
Employees who worked for the sixth population census team say, for different reasons, it is quite possible the final figure is not the real number of the population. Generally speaking, the people responsible for the research were resident representatives whose qualities varied.
In some cases, if a resident was not at home, researchers may have faked results or copied results of the fifth census which means the final result failed to present the real situation of the population.
Although there are disputes, most experts and analysts agree the birth rate in China ranges from 1.4 percent to 1.8 percent, and the total population will not surpass 1.5 billion. If China does not adopt the two-children policy, the aging population in the future will be three times greater than it is now, "so to the right thing to do is adjust family planning to a two-children policy," said Di.
Implementation
Regarding the two-children policy, some suggest the government should set no limitations, and people who want to have two babies should be allowed to do so, while others think the policy should set boundaries
Increasing the birth rate may help to mitigate problems such as a decreasing labor force appearing in an aging society but, for a certain time, China, has already been moving toward being an aging country, and will not lack workers, for the population base is large.
If all people who want to have a second child can do so, it will bring problems to the country's existing large population number which China has been working for decades to limit, said Di.
In 2004, the Renmi University produced a plan saying that a two-children policy should be implemented in three stages. First, people above the age of 35 will be allowed to have two babies, second, the age limitation would be deceased year after year until 2020; then, third, all married couples will allowed to have two babies
But the plan was not passed, for it neglected individual differences. A proportion of women are able to give birth after the age of 35 but others can not, so it is not fair to the second group.
A later plan in 2010 proposed if one member of a couple was the only child of his or her parents, the couple should be allowed to have a second child. This proposal has been widely agreed and a number of cities are willing to trial it, but Di says the final decision will still need to be made by the National People's Congress.
