China's aviation services market expected to be the world's largest by 2043: Airbus report

China is likely to surpass North America and Europe to become the largest aviation services market in the world by 2043, with its market size almost tripling from $23 billion in 2024 to reach $61 billion in 2043, a forecast by Airbus said on Thursday. 

The aviation services market in China grew from $18.6 billion last year to an expected $23 billion this year, marking a year-on-year growth of 24 percent.

In China, aircraft maintenance service accounts for about 83 percent of the overall aviation services market. The maintenance sector will expand from $19 billion in 2024 to $51 billion in 2043, driven by fleet expansion and aging aircraft, in addition to the growth of maintenance spending, dismantling and recycling demand and used serviceable material (USM) business, the Airbus report said. 

The 'Enhance' services, which account for 10 percent of the overall aviation services market, primarily focus on connectivity solutions enabled by digitalization, is expected to be the sector with the fastest growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6 percent from $2 billion in 2024 to grow to $6 billion by 2043. 

Meanwhile, new skills are required to secure the growing use of digital and new technologies, the report said. For the 'Train and Operate' service market, additional 478,000 skilled workers including technicians, pilots, and cabin crew are needed, with budget growth from $2 billion to $4 billion in 2043, all in need of professional training and flight operations solutions.

Though facing various economic and operational challenges, China's civil aviation market is resilient in 2024. Chinese airlines have reported 700.48 million passenger trips as of December 15 this year, setting a record high, with daily trips exceeding 2 million. Total passenger volume rose 18.1 percent year-on-year and 10.7 percent compared to 2019, according to data released by the Civil Aviation Administration of China.

At the same time, the non-stop expansion of China's international hub airports has made them easier for connecting with domestic traffic. 

China is projected to show strong fleet growth in the next 20 years. By 2043, China will have 11,160 aircraft in service, based on Airbus Global Market Forecast. This includes 9,520 new deliveries, comprising passenger and freight aircraft, which will account for 20 percent of the global demand. Over 26 percent of the new aircraft will replace the current fleet.