A recently released report from a noted U.S. think tank said that while China will reduce the military gap with the U.S., a hypothetical war between the two world powers would hurt China more, even as Chinese experts said the report's publication shows the U.S.' hard-line attitude toward China.
The report, "War with China: Thinking through the Unthinkable," published by the Rand Corporation, a research organization that offers public policy recommendations, said that "in 2015, U.S. losses could be a relatively small fraction of forces committed, but still significant; Chinese losses could be much heavier than U.S. losses and a substantial fraction of forces committed," but "China's anti-access and area-denial will make it increasingly difficult for the U.S. to gain military-operational dominance and victory, even in a long war."
Therefore, "by 2025, U.S. losses could range from significant to heavy; Chinese losses, while still very heavy, could be somewhat less than in 2015," it said.
Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations of the China Foreign Affairs University, told the Global Times that Rand is the representative of U.S. military hardliners. If the report is only for internal use then it is not an issue. However, the publishing of this report will surely affect public opinion and attempts to influence U.S. policy toward China. "Though some people in the U.S. are tough toward China, it is still hard to see the U.S. government starting a war," said Li.
The report also said although war would harm both economies, damage to China's could be catastrophic and lasting on the order of a 25-35 percent reduction in China's GDP in a year-long war, compared with a 10-20 percent drop in the U.S. GDP.
Zhao Xiaozhuo, a research fellow at the Center on China-U.S. Defense Relations of the PLA Academy of Military Science, told the Global Times that it is very hard to say to what extent Rand represents U.S. policy. Rand, just like many official Chinese think tanks, receives research topics, information and financial support from the military and intelligence agencies, and issues reports for the departments.
As of November 2015, Rand has published 191 reports related to China, covering politics, the economy, the military, the environment and intellectual rights, according to media reports.
