The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates for the third time since July when it meets this week, despite conflicting economic signals in the United States and what appears to be a widening internal split at the central bank.
The Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, will meet Tuesday and Wednesday. Analysts expect it to announce at the close of the second day's meeting a quarter-point cut, reducing the benchmark short-term rate to a range of 1.50 percent to 1.75 percent.
Manufacturing is stagnant and consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, dipped slightly last month, but employment remains at near-record highs, major bank earnings are strong and inflation is low. Nevertheless, the worldwide economic slowdown and uncertainty created by the lengthy U.S.-China trade dispute, despite tentative signs of reaching an agreement, are expected to persuade the Fed to cut rates.
The committee cut rates in July and September. The rate determines what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also affects the cost of consumer debt and therefore influences spending.
At its September meeting, two members voted against the cut and three others weren't persuaded of the need for a cut but agreed to reduce interest rates by a quarter point.
"I'm expecting a quarter-point cut," Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, told China Daily. "My guess is that the language will set a high bar for another cut, dampening expectations for more monetary easing in December. The China trade war has quieted for the moment, so there's less pressure on the Fed to take offsetting policy measures."
In a research note to investors, Goldman Sachs Analyst Spencer Hill said: "We expect the FOMC to deliver a third and final (quarter point) rate cut at the upcoming meeting."
