Dan Wang. （Photo by Feng Yongbin/China Daily）
Dan Wang, from the Economist Intelligence Unit in Beijing, believes that if the U.S. imposes new tariffs on a range of consumer goods next month, as it has warned, then this could have a big impact on domestic consumers and damage retail confidence.
"The consumption figures in the U.S. so far have been quite strong, but if these new tariffs are imposed, I am pretty sure this will make a big difference. It will be mostly on electronics such as iPhones and other products," she said.
One of the biggest casualties so far appears to be U.S. manufacturing, with the monthly manufacturing index of the Institute for Supply Management, hitting a 10-year low in September of 47.8 percent. It rallied slightly to 48.9 percent in October but this still represented three straight months of contraction-measured at below 50 percent.
Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM's manufacturing business survey committee, said global trade remains the most significant issue for manufacturers.
Despite the trade dispute, Chinese exports overall rose by 4.9 percent in the first 10 months of this year, according to the General Administration of Customs.
An 11.3 percent fall in exports to the U.S. was compensated by a rise of 5.1 percent in those to the European Union and a 10.4 percent rise to the Association of Southeast Asian nations trading bloc. However, exports fell last month by 0.9 percent, the third successive monthly drop, but below the 3.9 percent forecast by Bloomberg.
