Basic nationwide elderly care service system a step closer

Institutional reforms related to elderly care work and progress toward the establishment of a basic elderly care service system across China were highlights for the sector last year.

The Ministry of Civil Affairs, which assumed responsibility for most elderly care work from the National Health Commission in March, has completed the setting up of a new bureau, and local administrations are making progress in restructuring.

National and regional lists for basic elderly care services were formulated last year, and campaigns were launched to increase catering services for the elderly and care for those having financial difficulty. The number of elderly care facilities in China also kept climbing.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Jan 17, China's elderly population — those age 60 or older — grew to 297 million by the end of last year, making up 21.1 percent of the total population, compared with 19.8 percent by late 2022.

China's total population also dropped for a second consecutive year, by around 2.1 million, due to factors such as low fertility levels, fewer women of childbearing age and delays in marriage.

Yuan Xin, a professor at Nankai University's School of Economics and vice-president of the China Population Association, said the downward trend in total population, coupled with an older demographic profile, will be fundamental features of China in the future and will drive the country toward a deeply aging society.

"It is important to plan ahead in aspects of social and economic resources and policies to deal with the challenge," he said.

Du Peng, head of the gerontology research institute at the Renmin University of China, said in a Global Times article in late 2022 that the central leadership had called for the implementation of a national strategy to actively respond to population aging and had released detailed blueprints.

The next key step was carrying out measures at the grassroots level and making them accessible to the elderly and those in need, he added.

"For the most vulnerable groups, governments should increase subsidies to ensure they can be covered, while some elderly could enjoy both government-subsidized services and market-oriented services," he said.

Yuan said China's elderly population first exceeded 10 percent of the total in 2000 and has been growing rapidly in recent years.

"By the middle of this century, the elderly population is predicted to peak at 520 million, taking up 40 percent of the total population," he said. "As people born during times of low fertility will enter old age during the latter half of this century, the number will fall to around 360 million, but the aging trend will continue to deepen and likely approach 50 percent."

Yuan said the working-age population — defined as those age 15 to 59 — would fall from around 870 million at present to 650 million by around 2050.

However, he added, the trend would not necessarily result in a labor shortage because artificial intelligence, robots and other scientific advances could take the place of human labor in a modern digital society, and competition in the employment market would remain intense with a growing number of graduates from colleges and technical schools.

Yuan said relatively younger seniors in their 60s will account for nearly half of all elderly in the next three decades, creating a window of opportunity for China to implement retirement age reforms and increase elderly people's participation in society.

He also noted challenges in providing elderly care and sustaining the pension fund with a ballooning elderly population, longer life expectancies and expectations for higher-quality elderly care services.