The Arctic Ocean could become ice-free as early as in 2030, according to a new study.
Previous studies have predicted that the Arctic is trending towards an ice-free summer around the middle of the century.
The climate model used in the new study predicted an ice-free Arctic summer sometime between 2030 and 2050, if greenhouse gases continue to rise.
Moreover, by accounting for a long-term warming phase in the tropical Pacific, the study showed an ice-free Arctic is more likely to occur on the earlier side of that window, closer to 2030 than 2050.
These results need to be interpreted as part of a bigger picture, said lead author of the study James Screen in a press release.
Climate change caused by humans is the main reason for sea ice loss, so the timing of the first ice-free summer will also depend considerably on whether greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise or are curtailed, said Screen, who is an associate professor in climate science at the University of Exeter in Britain.
"You can hedge your bets," he said. But the shift in ocean temperatures in the Pacific means "there's more chance of it being on the earlier end of that window than on the later end," he added.
The study was published Wednesday in the American Geophysical Union's journal Geophysical Research Letters.
