Let's be clear from the start. From a scientific perspective, the lab leak theory isn't really a "theory." In casual conversation, a theory might be any half-baked idea that someone advances for whatever reason; but when the term is used in scientific and diplomatic contexts, especially in the midst of a global pandemic, a different sort of rigor is required.
This is because the term "theory" is a scientific term, which conveys an idea based on principles grounded in material facts and scientific reasoning. However, the claims asserted by some in the West, including the Trump and Biden administrations, that COVID-19 is potentially or worse, definitely, intentionally associated with a laboratory in Wuhan, China, have never been based in science.
Rather, the desire to demonize China, especially the Chinese political system, with clear racist implications, has always been the driving force behind these narratives. In fact, one should not even call this the "lab leak hypothesis," as the word "hypothesis" also conveys a normative, pseudo-scientific gloss.
Perhaps the proper term here is "surmise," which means to assert something is true without proof, and actual science might demonstrate in due course that the best way to describe these narratives is a "bald-faced lie."
What does science say?
Understanding the origin of a virus is important for scientific reasons. Knowing how and where it started can provide key insights into containment and recovery. And clearly, science must have the leading role to play when it comes to learning how to handle this outbreak.
Indeed, experience demonstrated that when and where science has been followed, negative impacts have been minimized. Conversely, wherever science has been politicized in ways that run contrary to basic facts, the damage has been maximized.
The lab leak lie had its beginning with the Trump administration. Prior to the outbreak, massive anti-China narratives was already crafted by the U.S. government, which repositioned for yet another containment strategy. We know from the American investigative journalist Bob Woodward's book that Donald Trump admittedly lied about the virus from the start, calling it the "Chinese virus" and promoting the lab leak lie, which suggested the Chinese government might have deliberately released the virus to attack the White House and the American people.
This narrative thread was woven with others, including the ridiculous, unfounded allegations of genocide in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, as well as scaremongering about Chinese technology, the idea that China stole American jobs, and that China was the world's leading currency manipulator and so on, all of which discursively convinced many Americans and others that the Chinese government was at the root of many American problems, and intended to take over the world.
The only truth in the story manipulated by the U.S. is that there is a laboratory in Wuhan, which in fact hires international researchers and is funded by the U.S. government. So, as stated by the Chinese government and foreign scientists working there, it is not a secret military laboratory up to no good. It is also tacitly acknowledged by some U.S. government officials.
Many believe the virus originated at Wuhan in late 2019, claiming that the city is where people first experienced the outbreak. But in fact, we don't actually know where it started or when.
According to a recent study by the leading public health journal Lancet, the virus was present in Italy since the summer of 2019. We also know that Italy was the worst hit European country initially. It's possible that the virus started in Italy, and it's likewise possible that it started somewhere else. We just have yet to determine at this point.
Another study says that the virus was possibly transmitted from bats to humans in Southeast Asia. As some scientists speculate, bats moved further north due to global warming, while the new habitats and changing temperatures encouraged viral mutations.
In the meantime, experts in virology, including leading foreign scientists who have worked with the laboratory in Wuhan, indicate the extreme unlikelihood that COVID-19 could have come from any laboratory. First, this type of research was not underway there. Second, there were no containment failures. Third, actually engineering this kind of outbreak is incredibly hard to do, perhaps even impossible.
It might be the case that science will never determine the origin of coronavirus. That will be unfortunate both for science and China, as the lab lead lie will remain "true" for many. But the simple fact is that science rarely pinpoints origins.
For example, scientists still can't conclusively prove when and where HIV originated, despite decades of research and billions of dollars spent. What we do know is that a lot of political narratives about HIV that proliferated in the early 1980s, which led to discrimination against gay people and Africans, undermining effective public health responses and contributing to many avoidable deaths, are still embraced as the truth by many. Yet scientists indicate HIV was in circulation globally long before the American "patient zero" Gaétan Dugas, a gay flight attendant of international routes, was diagnosed with the disease.
Given the history of HIV, the lab leak lie regarding COVID-19 might persist, unfortunately, even if science is capable of proving otherwise. This is due in part because so many already believe it categorically, but also because many of those who do believe it don't believe in science.
In the end, this won't serve anyone's interests, but only contribute to more misery and misinformation. That's generally true of all forms of lying, especially when lies are promoted as science during a pandemic.
