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Brexit's impact on China's foreign trade and investment

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2016-07-06 10:46CCTV Editor: Feng Shuang

The spokesman for China's Ministry of Commerce, Shen Danyang, says Britain's decision to leave the EU will not significantly impact Chinese foreign trade and investment.

Shen said China respects the British people's decision, and will closely watch economic developments in Europe after Britain leaves the bloc. The European Union is China's largest trading partner and an important investment partner. The United Kingdom is China's second largest trading partner among EU countries. Shen said China is still confident about the future of China-EU trading relations.

And China would like to continue to work with both the EU and the UK to deepen economic and political ties. Shen acknowledged that the Brexit referendum result has shaken international financial markets and created uncertainties for some Chinese companies. But said Beijing believes the impact of Britain's exit from the EU on China's economy will be limited.

"From a mid- and long-term perspective, we believe the impact will not likely last long. The international investment environment will clear up, and there will be a lot of investment opportunities. In general, there will be more opportunities for Chinese companies. So, it's reasonable to believe that foreign investment from Chinese companies will continue on a path of active and steady development," Shen Danyang said.

CCTV's reporter Martina Fuchs asked a market watchers where they think the Chinese currency is headed in a post-Brexit world.

Will the slump continue?

The yuan fell to its weakest level against the dollar since December 2010 after Britain's vote to leave the European Union and global markets were sent on a roller-coaster ride.

China's central bank tried to reassure markets last week, saying the expectations for the yuan against the currency basket are stable in the wake of the Brexit vote.

This is the Financial Street logo in Beijing, a symbol for a strong Chinese currency. It is here where the country's top policymakers and commercial banks are headquartered. One issue they're currently busy with is the future direction of the China's yuan.

Standard Bank predicts the yuan will slide more against the greenback.

"The yuan has already been in a steady decline against the dollar since the Chinese government's surprise devaluation of the currency last August when the domestic stock markets lost more than 30% of their value in a month," said Jeremy Stevens, Asia economist, Standard Bank.

After Brexit, the dollar's strength will likely rise as investors opt for low-risk assets and the yuan will likely depreciate a bit more.

Trade-reliant economies often resort to weakening their currencies in a bid to make their exports cheaper and prop up their economies.

But in China's case, investors are concerned the yuan's retreat could trigger another round of capital flight.

Premier Li Keqiang said last week that he wouldn't allow post-Brexit panic to send China's financial markets into a tailspin…

So what tools do policymakers still have available?

British bank Barclay's believes Brexit will burn 0.1% off the Chinese GDP in 2016 and 2017.

That will be "manageable" but it won't be easy.

  

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