The U.S. and South Korea have decided to deploy the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system to the Korean Peninsula, despite China and Russia's strong opposition. The missile threat posed by North Korea has been described as the prime reason for this, but this is no more than an excuse.
By throwing such a big stone, the U.S. actually aims at a number of birds. First of all, statistics suggest that the prime concern for Washington is not necessarily North Korea. According to the media, the success rate of Pyongyang's missile tests is as low as 50 percent. What primarily concerns the U.S. when it pushes to deploy THAAD is ironically not what this system is actually capable of - shooting down missiles launched by North Korea, at least half of which hardly reach a "Terminal High Altitude."
Needless to say, it aims bigger.
Meanwhile, South Korea's incrementally accumulated frustrations toward China despite their somewhat "elusive" friendship, and anxiety regarding the stagnant reconciliation process with the North combined with domestic conservative groups' constant criticisms of the current administration may be another excuse for the final approval of the deployment.
This has given the U.S. an opportunity to further push South Korea to tighten up the U.S.-South Korea alliance, and now South Korea has symbolically, strategically and substantially re-solidified its reliance on the U.S..
The truth is that South Korea is doing more of a favor to the U.S. and less of one to itself.
In a big picture, the final decision of deployment may have sent several messages to China.
The first one however concerns the role of North Korea. The question is, why the U.S. insistently justifies the deployment of such an advanced defense system with a North Korean missile threat that has not been proved to be significantly vicious and pressing?
Earlier this year, the U.S. and Cuba finally realized a diplomatic breakthrough, despite political and ideological divergences. Could North Korea be the next Cuba? There of course has been no solid proof but a possibility may exist.
The U.S. needs to deploy the THAAD system as soon as possible, but it may need to find another "legitimate" excuse to deploy it once there comes a possible reconciliation with North Korea in the future. Or in other words, however the issue of North Korea is eventually solved, the U.S. would probably create some other reason to deploy the THAAD system on the Korean Peninsula in the future.
Hypothetical though it is, this possible message suggests a careful comprehension of Washington's true multiple intentions in this deployment. Obviously, the U.S. is playing a long-term game.
Also, the deployment of the THAAD system on China's doorstep may suggest a certain degree of reconsideration of China's diplomacy in the current world, particularly toward the U.S. and its key allies in East Asia, and that of course includes South Korea.
For decades, China has worked on building a harmonious coexistence with other countries including its neighbors through cooperation and reconciliation. The world in which the U.S. still plays a leading role seems to repeatedly accuse China of something more or less contrary to what China has intended.
From the Korean Peninsula to the East and South China Seas, quite often China has been described as an "irresponsible" and even "provocative" revisionist great power, despite whatever China explains, suggests, and contributes.
This time, the deployment of THAAD has further cornered China - a rising power that naturally needs more space but truly finds itself being cornered. Maybe it is too pessimistic to claim that the world is still in a state of binary opposition in which the rules of zero-sum game still prevail, but at least China may need to understand that its rise is and will continue to be far more arduous and tortuous than that of any former emerging great powers - and it will be a "protracted war" in realpolitik, in which "good intentions" won't necessarily count for too much.
Jin Kai, the author, is a research fellow at Yonsei Institute for Sinology and a lecturer at the Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University in South Korea.
