By deploying its Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense system in the Republic of Korea, the United States will harm regional peace and stability, and put Seoul in a precarious position. The crux of the Barack Obama administration's "pivot to Asia" strategy is to consolidate its military presence in the region and THAAD is an important part of that move.
Apart from the ROK, the U.S. also hopes to deploy the missile system in Guam, Japan and the Philippines. But since deployment of THAAD in the ROK was considered the most difficult to achieve, the Obama administration sees Seoul's nod as a key step forward in its "pivot to Asia" strategy and wants to complete the process before ROK President Park Geun-hye's term in office is over.
Donald Trump has said the ROK should be responsible for its own security, and this attitude of the Republican presidential nominee has been worrying Seoul. When the U.S. withdrew parts of its forces from the ROK between 1950s and 1970s, Seoul felt "unsafe". So now, given Trump's stance, the Park administration seems eager to secure U.S. protection by opening the door to the missile defence system. The deal could even include the introduction of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in the ROK arsenal in the future.
This should make clear why the U.S. said it would bear all the expenses for the first THAAD in the ROK, and allowed the ROK military to test its radar electromagnetic wave radiation at its base in Guam on July 18.
In the mid-term ROK election on April 13, the ruling Saenuri Party became a minority. So it used THAAD to divert people's attention from the stagnant economy to national security, especially because the popular view in the ROK is that the U.S. is a more reliable economic engine than China. THAAD can reassure ROK people of the U.S.' support and protection even though the ROK leaders know it will invite threats, instead of safeguarding national security.
Responding to the opposition parties' criticism of THAAD, the Saenuri Party tried to stifle dissenting voices by saying opposing the missile system was equivalent to opposing national security protection. In other words, ROK leaders are keeping the people in the dark to ensure the deployment of THAAD.
During his meeting with ROK Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn on June 29, President Xi Jinping emphasized China's stance and concern over THAAD's deployment in the ROK. To cushion Beijing's reaction, Seoul said the missile defence system will be deployed in southeast ROK, the farthest point from China, and its detection range will be shortened from 2,000 kilometers to 600-800 km. This is hogwash, for even if the first THAAD's range were only 200 km, it can be easily upgraded and more such systems are likely to be deployed in the ROK.
Seoul's calculations about the deal are wrong, and it has jeopardized its neighbors' security in exchange for the protection of a faraway ally. It is an irony that the ROK considers itself an independent medium-level world power but still looks to other countries for protection.
THAAD will stoke an arms race on the Korean Peninsula, which is against the peaceful reunification goal of the ROK government. China and Russia will not sit idle while the U.S. continues to play its strategic games, and the ROK will become a target in any conflict that ensues. Worse, THAAD will weaken Sino-U.S. mutual trust and harm Sino-ROK economic and trade ties.
The situation the THAAD game will lead to will be too costly for the ROK.
By Wang Junsheng
The author is a researcher in Asia-Pacific strategy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
