Wang Ping'an, vice minister of the National Health and Family Planning Commission, said on Nov 26 that the number of newborns in 2016 will exceed 17.5 million, which meets the expectations of the change to the family planning policy that, in principle, allows each couple to have two children. Beijing Youth Daily comments:
It is November, one month before the end of the year, yet the NHFPC has hurried to report the data. Obviously, they hope to rally support for the "two children" policy that came into effect at the end of 2015.
The number 17.5 million of 2016 is, of course, larger than the 16.5 million newborns of 2015.However, it is too early to attribute that increase to the change in the family planning policy introduced at the end of 2015 that allows all couples to have two children in principle, as the number of newborns was 16.9 million in 2014. Therefore, it is reasonable to suppose that the policy change at the end of 2013, which allowed a couple to have two children if either of them is a single child of the family, might have played a major role in the increase of newborns.
If we take a look back, we can see that both officials and scholars placed high hopes on these new family planning policies, but the latter has failed to meet these expectations. As early as 2015, a senior official of the NHFPC predicted the number of newborns would increase by 2 million every year, and the China Population Association expected the number of newborns to reach 18 million in 2015 and 2016. Neither goal was reached in reality.
On the contrary, the policy change has met with a cold response from women of child-bearing age, with many saying it it too expensive to raise two children. If China wants to raise the birth rate, which is currently quite low, it must constantly improve not only the family planning policy, but also other supporting policies such as those concerning social welfare, so that the couples of child-bearing age become more willing to have children. That's the only way to curb China's aging society.
