The announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump to unilaterally withdraw from the Iran nuke deal is a huge blow to peace and security in the Middle East.
In a televised speech, Trump announced the exit, and affirmed that he will not extend the waiver of nuke-related sanctions against Iran.
His counterpart, Iran's President Hassan Rouhani, in a live speech broadcast nationwide announced that Iran will remain in the nuclear deal with the other five signatories of the pact without the United States; he spoke 20 minutes after Trump.
No matter what the two leaders say about the nuke deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran and the United States are set to clash.
POWER (IM)BALANCE
With the economic weakening of Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia will seize the chance to curtail Iran's influence in the region and its support for proxies and allies including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, Shiite militias in Iraq and Houthis in Yemen.
Israel was the first to voice support for Trump's decision, followed by Saudi Arabia.
Eldad Pardo, an expert on Iran from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, said this decision was taken "very late," expecting a larger deal that would include the Middle East region in general, and cover more content about the nuclear issue, the missile program and terrorism.
However, the response by Iran and its regional proxies would almost certainly lead to greater regional instability.
"It is a reckless step that has negative implications in the Middle East, as it came after the easing of tension between Tehran and the countries of the region since the deal was signed three years ago," said Khaled al-Muntaser, a Libyan international relations researcher and professor.
Intensified uncertainties in the Middle East geopolitics, and tensions flaring up are among the most likely subsequent crises.
Sameh Abdullah, managing editor of Egypt's state-run Al-Ahram newspaper, said it has become U.S. policy in the Middle East to create tension and never allow stability.
He thinks that the U.S. moves are not intended to restore regional stability but plant further seeds of dissensions among regional states. Doing so would increase U.S. influence in the region.
"Trump understands that it is a problem that Iran has expanded its military presence in Syria and Lebanon, which in his view must be changed. That's why Trump believes the deal has to be nixed," said Dan Diker, a director of the Program to Counter BDS and Political Warfare.
Not surprised by Trump's decision, Bilgehan Alagoz, a lecturer at the Institute of Middle East Studies, Marmara University, regarded the U.S. move as part of "a global strategy, not only a regional strategy."
The United States will be very influential in the Gulf "by containing Iran and by getting approval from the Arab allies, and this will also affect other world powers' dependence in the region," she said.
Meanwhile, Alagoz doesn't believe that the European Union (EU) would withdraw from the deal, at least for now, because "the EU also is dependent on external energy resources and Iran is one of the most important energy exporting countries."
BAD FOR BUSINESS
Considering the new decision, it would be more difficult for international companies to sign deals or maintain businesses with Iran, as they would fear the risk of violating U.S. sanctions.
