In China, people often say "the weather in June changes unpredictably just like a child's temper." It is hard to think of a more apt proverb to describe the recent situation in Northeast Asia.
In a move that surprised the entire world, the DPRK said it is suspending high-level talks with ROK, claiming the military exercises between the ROK and the United States were a "provocation" and a rehearsal for an invasion. The denouncement has cast dark clouds over Northeast Asia once again, also leaving the scheduled Trump-Kim meeting, to be held in Singapore next month, up in the air.
According to the DPRK state news service KCNA, the DPRK claims "the large-scale joint military exercises that are being carried out across South Korea from the 11th, is a 'naked challenge' to the Panmunjom Declaration and an "intentional military provocation" that goes against the trend of warming ties on the Korean peninsula."
Directly addressing the US, the DPRK didn't mince its words, saying"the United States must also think twice about the destiny of the planned Singapore summit in light of this provocative military ruckus jointly conducted with the South Korean authorities."
This is the most severe warning from the DPRK since the situation on the Korean peninsula appeared to be improving. "There is a bit of measure to send goodwill, and there are also limits to opportunities," the DPRK statement added.
Agree or disagree with how it was expressed in some ways, the DPRK may have a point. The two leaders of the Korean peninsula did agree to reduce the outward signs of war, and Pyongyang has taken steps towards denuclearization.
Only three days ago, Kim Jong Un had scheduled the dismantlement of the country's nuclear bomb test site, which received high praise from Trump who called it "a very smart and gracious gesture" on Twitter. Also before that, the DPRK had released three American "hostages". Yet the US and South Korea are continuing on with their military drills.
Speaking to CGTN, Wang Fudong, an expert in Korean Peninsula Studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations offered this view of events; "Given the good gestures DPRK has posed recently, Kim Jong Un may think the US and ROK should at least make some concessions on military exercises. However, the Trump administration continues to adopt the policy of "exerting extreme pressure", hoping the DPRK could completely denuclearize, that could annoy Kim Jong Un."
Just a few hours after the DPRK announced the "indefinite" postponement of the high-level talks, Kim Kye Gwan, the first vice-minister of Foreign Affairs of the DPRK, issued a public statement posing a new possible threat to the United States:
"If the Trump administration has forced us into desperation and unilaterally demanded that we abandon our nuclear program, we will no longer be interested in dialogue and will have to reconsider whether to accept the DPRK and US leaders' talks."
Kim Kye Gwan's statement has brought the future Trump-Kim summit on the verge of collapse. But Korean affairs expert Wang thinks there is still a strong possibility that the meeting will be held as scheduled.
"Although DPRK's attitude is tough, I think this is just a negotiation strategy of Kim Jong Un, who is also a tough man. He does not want Trump to believe that he is submitting to the "extreme pressure" of the United States to negotiate, but he also has the initiative. In this way, he could increase his bargaining leverage," said Wang.
Wang also discussed the possible "Libya model" proposed by U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton in which Libya "allowed American and British observers into all their nuclear related sites. So it wasn't a question of relying on international mechanisms."
"On the other side, the 'Libya model' proposed by the Trump administration is very stupid. For the model itself, it was a completely fail, and the former leader of Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, had a very bad ending. This will also make the DPRK feel offended."
President Trump has been unusually quiet so far following the DPRK statements, he has not given a speech, nor accepted any media questions, and he hasn't even taken to his favorite form of communication-social media.
There is no doubt that, if the DPRK cancels talks with the United States, it will be a huge blow to Trump's efforts to reach the greatest diplomatic achievement in office.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in is scheduled to visit the U.S. next week. The agenda for this meeting may have just gone from "ironing out last minute details" around the DPRK-U.S. summit to fire-fighting an international crisis.
Even Trump knows that DPRK may be just bargaining with him and testing his negotiating "bottom lines", Trump will definitely take various measures to prevent the worst from happening. After all, it is a piece of cake for him to change his attitude; we can just wait for his Twitter post!
(The article is based on an interview with Wang Fudong, an expert in Korean Peninsula Studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations. The article reflects the expert's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.)
