Is Beijing earthquake-proof?

"Why should I even try to escape? I'd lie in bed and wait," noted Rao Hengjiu, professor of the School of Humanities and Social Sciences at the China University of Petroleum.

He was pondering the possibility of an earthquake in Beijing after a magnitude 4.7 earthquake shook Tangshan, Hebei Province, last week; the quake's epicenter just 200 kilometers east of Beijing. Fortunately, there were no reports of damage or injuries.

Beijingers took to Weibo, China's biggest microblogging website, to say that buildings shuddered and share their fears of what would happen if a seismic event hit the capital.

Three days later, the Beijing Municipal People's Congress said that the capital's 33 emergency shelters can only accommodate 10 percent of its total population - 1.6 million people.

Experts say that measures have been taken to prevent a catastrophe similar to the one that occurred in Tangshan in 1976, when China's deadliest earthquake of the 20th century caused over 240,000 deaths. China again suffered in 2008, when a magnitude 8 earthquake struck Sichuan Province, killing at least 68,000 people, wiping out entire towns.

However, they also noted that old buildings and lax inspections plague the construction industry. Experts also stressed that a lack of rescue and survival drills may elevate the death toll if a quake strikes Beijing.

Capital shock

"The city is so densely populated and obstructed by construction that more residents will be trampled to death by other citizens, or will end up being crushed by buildings if they try to escape to an open space," said Rao. "The city's congestion and the fact that people are not prepared to act in emergency situations would make the work of rescue teams even harder," noted the scholar. "It's essential to improve the construction and management of shelters, as well as work on public awareness about earthquake prevention."

"Otherwise we might all die on our way to the shelter," said the expert.

Beijing is considered by several geologists to be a high-risk area for earthquakes, and the city does not have countermeasures in place for major catastrophes, the Beijing Municipal Earthquake Bureau (BMEB) confirmed last year.

"On the six-to-nine scale used to classify resistance to earthquakes in China, Beijing scores an eight given its probability of being hit by an earthquake and the technological capacity to respond to the situation," said Professor Song Bo of the Civil and Environmental Engineering Institute of the Beijing University of Science and Technology. Song explained that the general rules for construction establish that a building "should be constructed so that it won't collapse when a strong earthquake hits; it can be mended when a moderate one happens; and it'll be unharmed when a minor one strikes."

"Policymakers, designers, construction companies and supervising departments need to come together to make sure the rules are put in place," said the scholar, refusing to go into detail.

Cutting corners during construction is another serious issue. Many buildings have narrow corridors and few emergency exits, hampering escape routes that may help save lives in the event of an earthquake, noted several architects and engineers under condition of anonymity.

Immeasurable losses

Times have changed since the Tangshan earthquake. In 1976, it took the Chinese government months to admit that the earthquake had happened. In 2008, people live-streamed destruction online as it happened in Sichuan; the Chinese government accepted international aid and neither denied the event nor tried to hide the massive death toll.

"Times change, we're not living in Mao's era anymore," said Rao. "We're living in a much more open society, that's why the Sichuan earthquake couldn't be denied. The Chinese government is much more confident than before, it has much better technology and the financial means to cope with such a scenario," said Rao. "Learning from the mistakes of the past is the best we can do."

Despite this, Rao has serious concerns. "The economic consequences of the destruction would be immense. As far as the political aspects go, usually, when a natural disaster strikes a society with underlying issues, there's intense destabilizing pressure on the government. On the other hand, a fair society is more likely to survive and recover, like we saw happen in Japan after the tsunami in March last year," explained Rao, noting that the only positive aspect of such a calamity is that a new city can also rise from the ashes, like Tangshan did.

"People's reactions in times of catastrophe reveal their civic qualities as well as their education," Song said.

Fear and faith

Beijing residents have mixed feelings about the idea of an earthquake in the capital.

A woman surnamed Pert was on a bus to Tangshan, when she felt tremors on Monday last week. "It was so quick, I wasn't even sure it was an earthquake, but this was not the first time that I felt the earth shaking and my heart pounding in fear of being caught up in a quake," said the 30-year-old woman, who requested that she be identified only by her surname.

"I instantly recalled how I felt when the lamps and the table started trembling as I was having lunch on May 12, 2008. I thought the movement was caused by construction works in the building, until I heard on the news that those were waves caused by the devastating earthquake in Sichuan, which were being felt in Beijing, 1,500 kilometers away," said the biochemist.

"I don't live in constant fear that Beijing will collapse any minute but I'm aware that most buildings in China don't respect safety standards," she noted.

Unlike Pert and Internet users who shared their fears online, 23-year-old Tian Lan, an undergraduate student at the China Foreign Affairs University, believes Beijing isn't prone to earthquakes. "I believe in our ancestors. There must be a reason why the capital has been here, unharmed, for centuries," he said.

Another 300 shelters will be designated by 2015, and new schools are being built that will be able to be used as shelters for people in an emergency, state media have reported.

The city has 11 rescue teams with 247 members to serve during earthquakes, according to the Beijing Fire-Fighting Bureau. However, that is not enough for rescue missions during big earthquakes, the National Earthquake Response Support Service told the Global Times.