Chinese colleges threatened by shortage of students

(Ecns.cn)--The results of millions of college entrance examinations, or gaokao, have been released, marking the beginning of a fierce competition among universities and colleges to recruit top students.

Though schools in most provinces have promised an admission rate of over 70 percent, many face a severe lack of candidates. The situation is especially tough for small colleges.

"Recruitment is like a battle, with all teachers joining the fight. We pull out all the stops every year, but still can't enroll enough students," a teacher from a vocational school in Shandong Province told People's Daily.

The number of gaokao takers has dropped from 10.5 million in 2008 to 9.15 million this year, a decline of 12.9 percent, according to the Ministry of Education.

The drop represents a major problem for many private colleges which receive little government funding.

The School of Economics and Management at Hunan Vocational College for Nationalities only has 97 students enrolled for five subjects, according to Jiang Zonghu, dean of the department.

"The majority of city-level vocational colleges are on the brink of death. The prospects are a little brighter for those located in vigorous economic zones like Shenzhen in Guangdong Province and Yiwu in Zhejiang Province, where governments are quite supportive," said Wu Shun, head of the department.

"Tuition is the main source of funding for China's vocational schools. They can hardly survive without enough students," said Chen Zhiwen, editor-in-chief of China Education Online.

The crisis is also fueled by an increasing number of young adults choosing to study overseas.

According to statistics from the People's Daily, over 3 million students gave up the gaokao from 2009 to 2012. Some preferred foreign schools, which they believe provide better opportunities; others went out to find work, arguing that college diplomas don't guarantee good jobs these days.

Yang Yuting, a college candidate in Chongqing, told China Newsweek that "the pressure from the gaokao is almost intolerable. Peking University and Tsinghua University are top schools in China, but their rankings in the world are not very high. It's easier to enter a foreign university, where I can learn more."

Data show that the number of students studying abroad has grown by 20 percent every year, hitting 340,000 in 2011. The number is expected to exceed 400,000 by the end of this year.

According to Chen Zhiwen, the low birthrate caused by the family-planning policy is at the root of the decline in college candidates, a downward trend that is likely to continue until 2017 or 2020.

It is estimated that the number of high school students will shrink to around 16.77 million in 2018, putting the number of graduates at around 5.59 million, 1.26 million fewer than this year's total quota for all colleges and universities of 6.85 million.

"The one-child policy has cut the population of China's youngsters in half every 30 years. The problem is similar to the labor shortages. In decades, China will be a country of elderly people, and there will be no workforce," said a web user.

In response, China's top demographers, sociologists and economists have been calling for an end to the one-child policy. "It is time to think about removing this policy decided 30 years ago—China's situation has changed so much," said Gu Baochang, a demographer at Renmin University.

Yet some analysts say the dramatic cut in the number of newborns has made it possible for the nation to improve its educational services.

Chen Zhiwen suggested that an exit strategy should be set up to help students and teachers in case schools fail. It is necessary to prepare for a rainy day, given that Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have all suffered similar crises, Chen added.

Chinese colleges should also try to attract more foreign students, advised Zeng Tianshan, vice head of the National Institute of Education Sciences. "Economic returns from an overseas student are usually three times that of a Chinese student."

"The crisis also has its bright side, by pushing the country's institutions to improve themselves," added Zeng.