Building a peaceful environment

The security situation in its neighboring environment will have a far-reaching influence on China in the coming year.

In 2012, China faced an unstable security situation because of threats to its maritime rights and interests as a result of intensified territorial disputes with some of its neighbors. Due to the increasingly fierce island dispute between Japan and the Republic of Korea and Japan's provocation of China by "purchasing" the Diaoyu Islands, the security situation in Northeast Asia is tense, complicated by the situation on the Korean Peninsula, where, although there was no military confrontation, the two rocket launches by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea have added further uncertainty. Meanwhile, China is facing more and more pressure from attempts to internationalize and multilateralize the South China Sea disputes.

The situation is not helped by the intensified arms race in the region brought about by the US' "rebalancing" to the Asia-Pacific.

In 2011, relations between the ROK and the DPRK were kept frozen while security integration between the United States, Japan and the ROK was strengthened, and the situation remained relatively calm this year, Both Koreas were busy with internal affairs, which meant there was less likelihood of a military confrontation and continued security competition. The DPRK even took a number of measures to try and improve relations with the US, Japan and the ROK after the smooth transition following the death of Kim Jong-il. However, as it failed to gain much of a response, Pyongyang again began taking extreme measures.

The success of its satellite launch in December, after the failure of its first launch in April, suggests that the DPRK has now mastered this technology. In response to the DPRK's satellite launch, the US, Japan and the ROK, in addition to prompting the UN Security Council to condemn and sanction Pyongyang, have strengthened their self-defense capability. The US took efforts to help the ROK to strengthen its missile-building capacity, increasing the range of the ROK's missiles so that they cover the whole of the DPRK. In addition, the possibility that the US and the ROK will redeploy tactical nuclear weapons in the ROK may make the long-standing efforts to promote the denuclearization of the peninsula redundant.

It is too early to talk about the formation of a Japan-ROK alliance. Without the security threat from the DPRK, historical issues and island disputes led to a cooling of the Japan-ROK security cooperation process this year. The two countries put an intelligence-sharing pact on hold less than an hour before it was due to be formally signed. The ROK president's landing on the disputed island intensified bilateral rifts.

Meanwhile, the Southeast Asian security situation became more complicated, because the South China Sea disputes suffered from more "noise variables".

Some Southeast Asian countries attempted to put bilateral disputes under multilateral frameworks, and countries outside the region, such as the US and Japan, took the opportunity to add fuel to the fire, trying to stir up the troubled waters.

Through inviting oil and gas tenders, appealing to popular sentiment, seeking legislative confirmation, and trying to draw in the international community by exerting pressure at multilateral gatherings, Southeast Asian countries claiming maritime territories in the South China Sea have sought to promote the internationalization of the South China Sea disputes and attempted to form a quasi-alliance against China. The US has taken the opportunity to strengthen its military presence in Southeast Asia, not only striving to restore its previous alliances, but actively expanding its security partnerships. In addition, the US has tried to peddle its arms to regional countries, leading to a significant rise in military spending and an increasingly complicated security situation in the region.

The South China Sea disputes are likely to evolve into a Sino-US strategic competition. Washington is actually using countries, such as the Philippines and Vietnam, as pawns. Washington's double-dealing has deepened the troubles facing Southeast Asian countries and led to greater tensions in the region.

Since 2012, non-traditional security in fields of terrorism, water resources and energy security, and transnational crime have become increasingly prominent in China's neighboring security environment and in the future these will continue to have a major influence.

Non-traditional security threats are not deadly, although they increasingly constitute mainstream national security threats. So properly handling the non-traditional security issues in surrounding areas and promoting regional security cooperation is of great significance to China maintaining good relations with its neighbors and improving its security environment.

Handling non-traditional security issues, such as water resource disputes, transnational crime, drug trafficking and terrorism requires multilateral cooperation and shared governance. However, non-traditional security cooperation is mixed with a lot of traditional security competition, which has created obstacles to the development of non-traditional security cooperation. Addressing non-traditional security issues needs not only inter-governmental cooperation, but also active collaboration with civil societies, to really consolidate public support and promote mutual trust building with neighboring countries.

Yet, although China's neighboring security situation was slightly grim this year overall, it did not seriously deteriorate. Frictions increased without any military conflicts. Old problems continue to simmer, but although new non-traditional security issues further complicate the security situation, these are likely to become an area for greater regional security cooperation.

However, the overall security situation is not optimistic.

Currently three factors are affecting China's neighboring security situation: the US' rebalancing to Asia strategy, the anxiety of neighboring countries caused by China's quick rise, and the lack of regional security and strategic trust.

The US is using its regional allies and partnerships to implement its rebalancing strategy. But although the US looks aggressive, it is outwardly strong and inwardly weak. Should the security situation in the region deteriorate out of control, the US would be asking for trouble and could not guarantee its regional dominance. Hence to keep the regional crises under control is favorable for the US' return to the region.

The US does not want to see direct military conflicts and it is trying to avoid being committed. To this end, the US has pushed its allies and security partners to the forefront and hidden itself behind the scenes.

With China's rise, the concerns of neighboring countries have increased. China has gradually become the focus of East Asian security, and China's quick rise is triggering multiple reactions.

The US wants to take advantage of the contradictions between China and its neighbors to form a quasi-alliance in response to a more "assertive" China. The effectiveness of China's diplomatic restraint is weakening, and China should take the initiative to shape regional security.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization has promoted mutual trust between China, Russia and the five Central Asian countries, but there is a lack of mutual trust and security cooperation mechanisms between China and its other neighbors. So, any trouble is likely to result in a very grim security situation.

Establishing a peaceful and stable surrounding environment is a touchstone for China's peaceful development.

China should actively promote multilateral security cooperation in the region and reduce the sensitivity of regional security and spillover risks. It should continue to promote the growth of a new model of economic cooperation. Economic cooperation between China and Southeast Asian countries in recent years has fully proved to be of mutual benefit. China should also consolidate a healthy environment for better Sino-US relations, and actively explore new non-alliance relations among major powers. Meanwhile, China should be assertive about its territorial and sovereign integrity.