Inflation likely to become a major problem in 2013

The world economy will remain complex and variable, and maintain slow growth in 2013. Protectionism will rise in various forms, and the pressure of potential inflation and asset bubbles will expand. The world economy has moved from the fast development period before the global financial crisis into a period of deep transformation, according to China's annual Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing from Dec. 15 to Dec. 16.

Gao Cheng, an associate research fellow at the National Institute of International Strategy under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the world economy will maintain weak growth for some time, and it is difficult to reverse this trend through conventional fiscal and monetary policies. At present, it is imperative to conduct comprehensive, systematic, and deep transformation of the world economy. The accurateness and effectiveness of this transformation will exert a far-reaching impact on the long-term development of the world economy and the competition among various countries.

Xie Dongming, an economic analyst at OCBC Bank in Singapore, said that the world economy will remain fraught with uncertainty next year. The U.S. fiscal cliff is still unresolved, and Europe continues to be plagued by the debt crisis despite gradual improvements. The Asian economy enjoys bright prospects, and Southeast Asian countries remain strong in terms of investment and domestic demand, which can offset the decline in external demand to a certain degree. The Asian economy is expected to improve next year, while the world economy will continue to recover slowly.

Xiao Lian, director of the Center for U.S. Economic Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that developed countries have adopted a beggar-my-neighbor policy by taking advantage of the unfair international economic system and order to export their economic crises to other countries. This policy has not only damaged the common interests of all countries, but also affected the recovery and development of developed economies themselves.

Xie noted that inflation will be a major potential problem next year. The era of cheap capital continues, and the United States, Europe, and Japan are supporting their economies through ultra-loose monetary policy. Inflationary pressures will increase considerably next year along with world economic recovery. The loose monetary policy of developed countries has a big impact on Asian capital markets. A large amount of capital has flown into Asia's stock and bond markets in pursuit of profits, but this process cannot last long. Asian bond markets have developed robustly this year, and the rate of return has dropped. Once developed countries increase their interest rates or domestic economies worsen, huge capital outflows will deliver a hard blow to Asian capital markets. The Asian countries concerned should prepare for possible risks through prudent macroeconomic policies.

Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, said that the "high uncertainty" brought about by the U.S. "fiscal cliff," European debt crisis, and turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa still exists, and two-way fluctuations of international bulk commodity prices will continue. The situation in the Middle East and North Africa is the biggest uncertain factor for the crude oil market. Emerging economies are likely to grow faster next year, and may face greater pressure of capital inflows and currency appreciation. Most developed countries and regions are expected to adopt neutral monetary policy. The United States, eurozone, and Japan will maintain tight fiscal policy, or even tighten it to cope with debt problems.