Are earthquake ‘forecasters’ the reckless rumormongers?(2)

Absence of government role

The emergence of grass-roots "experts" further mirrors the public's growing dissatisfaction with earthquake administrations at all levels. Amid the tragedy in Lushan, a new debate on the significance of such organs emerged.

He Bing, a law professor at the China University of Political Science and Law, also an active Weibo user, pointed out one day after the Lushan earthquake that it was a mistake to set up earthquake bureaus as they are unable to make effective forecasts despite the abundant resources at their disposal.

"To avoid legal liability resulting from incorrect predictions, they would rather keep silent and attribute their nonfeasance to technical obstacles," He said in his Weibo.

In August 1971, the NEA was officially set up and brought under the management of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Four years later, its status was raised to an agency directly subordinate to the State Council.

The administration was once hailed by the public, and even the international community, after it was reported to have successfully predicted a 7.3-magnitude earthquake in Haicheng, Northeast China's Liaoning Province on February 4, 1975, avoiding great losses. The achievement was hailed as a "miracle" around the world, but remains disputed to this day.

However, the center was then quickly lambasted for failing to forecast the deadly earthquake in Tangshan, Hebei Province on July 28, 1976, which caused more than 240,000 deaths. After the Wenchuan quake in 2008, people's confidence in it almost hit rock bottom.

People complain that the earthquake administration has become a huge bureaucratic body that has to spend a lot of money to support its massive number of staff members and retirees, leaving only a small portion of State funds for what they believe is the "most important" task: life-saving earthquake forecasts.

On April 19, the NEA released its budget for 2013.

While a big chunk of the more than 4 billion yuan ($652 million) budget will go to monitoring and communication networks, only about 38 million yuan was specifically allocated for earthquake forecasts, while more than 150 million yuan was set aside for housing projects for their staff, immediately prompting widespread criticism.

He Bing suggested that earthquake administrations at all levels be closed down and substituted with research institutes. Meanwhile, the government should allow and support forecast attempts by individuals or grass-roots organizations.

Sun said it's understandable that the public strongly resents the earthquake authority considering its overall performance in recent years.

"After the Wenchuan earthquake, the authority stressed that earthquakes can't be predicted instead of reflecting on what it could do to make improvements," he said.

Gao Jianguo, deputy secretary-general of the China Association for Disaster Prevention, agreed that it's still difficult to make forecasts at present, but said the government can invite enthusiastic amateurs to participate in medium and long-term monitoring, which is also helpful in preventing mass casualties and losses.

"The government should first affirm the efforts made by non-professionals rather than throw cold water on them," said Gao, adding that antagonism continues to simmer between the two sides, as authorities have not done a good job of incorporating grass-roots forces into the greater earthquake prevention campaign.

He also noted that non-government organizations and individuals should follow the law in releasing forecast information.

At this point, good cooperation between the government and civilian forces is not likely to happen soon.

"They believe they are the professionals and look down upon on us amateurs," Xu said.

Lin said he has tried to share his observations with the earthquake administration via Weibo but was ignored, and also believes there is no basis for any cooperation.

Firmly believing in his unique method, Xu said he plans to compile his findings into a report and submit it to the top leadership.

"If they can give me certain support for personnel, funds and technology, I am confident that I will be able to make remarkable progress on strong quake forecasts in the western region, in particular southwestern areas," he said.