Roadmap to change

Two sessions preview: China at the crossroads of another wave of reforms

As the early March annual sessions of the NPC and the CPPCC approach, observers say China is at the crossroads of another wave of reforms, a response to changing problems.

Sweeping reform

Reform has been a catchphrase of the political life of China since the late 1970s, which, along with the opening up policy, created decades of unprecedented economic and social development. This year is seen as a crucial year for comprehensively deepening reform in the political, social and economic spheres and preparing a roadmap of reforms for the years to come.

The upcoming "two sessions" is expected to highlight further reform policies in both Premier Li Keqiang's government report and proposals put forth by deputies.

A wide range of issues, such as administrative reform, and shifting the role of government from control to service, are expected to be discussed during the meetings and on the sidelines of the two sessions, with policy changes aiming to involve grass-roots organizations and the people in the reforms.

Under the current government, previous years have seen innovative reforms such as the establishment of the Shanghai free trade zone, and the abolishment of hundreds of government approvals previously required for civil and economic activities. The rule of law, highlighted during a 2014 Party congress, will be further elaborated and implemented this year as a principle of governance.

Faced with increasing demand for social reforms, policymakers are engaging with the task of expanding social equality to create fairer access to education, medical care, pension and other social welfare for the general public. How to gradually loosen the household registration control, or the hukou system, and provide equal opportunities to non-local residents in the face of urbanization and population flow, is an area that will affect hundreds of millions of people.

With China's economy headed towards a soft landing, the sweeping reforms are also designed to bolster the economic "new normal," sacrifice the pursuit of specific growth figures to move towards a more technologically advanced economy that can better protect the environment.

Anti-graft

China's anti-graft campaign kicked off to a high-profile start in December 2012 following the announcement of a probe into Li Chuncheng, former deputy Party chief of Sichuan Province. During the past two years the sweeping campaign has reshaped the country's political and social dynamics, while penetrating into ordinary people's lives.

As of February, over 70 officials of provincial or above levels have been investigated or prosecuted, crowned by the investigation of former security chief Zhou Yongkang. According to public reports, the number makes up nearly one-third of all investigated senior officials since the republic was founded in 1949."No exceptions" is a crucial factor of the anti-graft campaign, demonstrated by the large number of toppled officials and unprecedentedly senior targets. The leadership has further showed its determination by extending the campaign into almost all vital sectors, including the military, energy, finance, State-owned assets, as well as media and sports.

Beginning with individual cases, disciplinary watchdogs have gradually woven a net by mapping out heavily corrupt regions and cohorts, including the power networks of Zhou, and cliques in regions such as Shanxi and Sichuan provinces. Cracking down on these groups has become an effective remedy to the damage to justice and order caused by such chains of interests, which rely heavily on nepotism and under-the-table dealings.

As a key practice of rule of law, it is anticipated that specific anti-graft legislation will be discussed at the upcoming "two sessions." After establishing a new anti-graft bureau last year, China's Supreme People's Procuratorate stated on February 21 that it will push for the legislation, signaling that the endeavor will be expedited.

Observers have said that the anti-graft law should focus on setting clear rules to define boundaries of public power. It should also integrate the fragmented legal framework governing Party discipline, the Criminal Law and other related laws to punishing the corrupt, pushing what is currently a case-by-case way of investigating onto a more systematic legal track. Analysts have also suggested that transparency in the investigation and trial processes should also be improved to secure the rights of the probed officials and the public's right to know.

Economic predictions

At the start of the "two sessions," Premier Li Keqiang will deliver a government work report highlighting a slew of key economic targets for the year.

Among the most closely watched are the yearly GDP growth target, which is widely forecast to be lower than last year's 7.5 percent, mirroring the "new normal" of slower but higher quality growth.

In January, it was reported that China's economy expanded at 7.4 percent in 2014, the slowest expansion in 24 years and missing the official target for the first time since 1998. Forecasts for this year's growth target vary among economists and experts, but a commonly held view is that it might remain soft well into 2015. The World Bank said in late October while releasing its thrice-yearly review of the Chinese economy that growth target could be cut to 7 percent this year, part of a set of reform plans devised to rebalance the economy.

Saying that reforms are set to better serve the economy, Jing Ulrich, managing director and vice chairman of Asia Pacific at investment bank JPMorgan Chase & Co noted in late January that the Chinese economy is expected to maintain steady growth for the year. She predicted that the economy will grow at 7.2 percent in 2015, buttressed by a set of reform efforts ranging from finance to taxation, to the State-owned sector pushed by the government.