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Interview with Elon Musk: Where will we be in 10 years?(2)

2015-03-30 11:00 Xinhua Web Editor: Gu Liping
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POTENTIAL THREAT OF AI

Musk believes AI will have a profound effect on the future, however, he is realistic that intelligent machines may also pose risk.

"We will see dramatic increases in the manifestations of AI [in the next decade]," Musk said.

His car company Tesla Motors is working on a full autopilot system that could be developed in three years, while highway autopilot is coming in a few weeks.

Within the next decade, fully autonomous cars will become safer than human driving by far, Musk said.

However, he drew a distinction between self-driving cars and deep-thinking AI.

"I think we should be quite concerned that [deep AI] has the potential to be an existential threat," Musk said, but dismissed the possibility of himself developing such AI.

More attention must be given to AI safety, he said, comparing it to nuclear power safety.

"That's why in nuclear power, the overwhelming amount of engineering and research is into safety. That should also be true with AI," Musk said.

CANCER CURED, MORE SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

In another bold prediction, Musk said humanity would see huge breakthroughs in curing diseases, even without rewriting genetics.

"In the next 10 years, I actually expect most forms of cancer to be completely cured [...] based on the companies that I know that are developing extremely good cancer cures and that are in late stage of human trials."

Humanity will also probably substantially address, if not eliminate, Alzheimer's in 10 years, predicted Musk, who is not involved in medical business.

However, he believes curing cancer will only increase the average human life span by two-three years as our fundamental life cycle is genetically wired. Whether humanity should or not rewrite genetics is a difficult question, he said.

Musk said he hoped the future would see more sustainable energy used, with solar panels and batteries powering the world. He forecast "high double-digit" growth in U.S. solar power demand.

Musk is chairman of U.S. solar company Solar, which provides design, financing and installing of solar power systems.

The company is one of the biggest solar panel buyers from China, Musk said.

He also expects a surge in electric car production and use, noting that Tesla was founded to accelerate the advent of electric vehicles, forcing other car makers to follow suit.

Musk's China trip comes after Tesla sales in the country reportedly fell below expectations last year. He attributed the situation to speculators canceling orders and pledged strong commitment to the Chinese market.

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