China's home prices will diverge next year, with first-tier cities expecting to see a moderate growth while some second- and third-tier cities experiencing a drop, experts said at a forum over the weekend.
"There is still strong demand in Beijing, which could be evidenced by the market recovery initiated in the pre-owned home markets," said Nie Meisheng, honorable chairman of the Chamber of Real Estate Commerce at the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce.
According to Nie, the pre-owned home market is dominated by self-use home buyers and there are very few investors.
However, a large rebound in the price is not likely, she added
"If there is any price hike that is much higher than the GDP growth, the government will definitely launch more rigorous measures," Nie said.
On the other hand, Nie also believes a tumble in the country's property prices is not likely unless China's economy slides into a recession.
"But in some second- and third-tier cities where there is a large amount of housing stock, there are risks of a price drop because demand can hardly catch up with supply in such cities," said Nie.
Mao Daqing, vice-president of China Vanke Co, the country's largest property developer, held a similar viewpoint.
"There will be price growth in some key cities but the growth will be limited because of the rigorous real estate policies in place," said Mao.
He stressed that increasing land supply efficiently remained the key to addressing skyrocketing home prices.
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