Growth forecast to exceed 7 pct in 2013

China's economic growth will be above 7 percent in 2013 — that's the verdict of 85 out of 100 Chinese economists in a survey published by Web portal 163.com on Thursday.

Among them, 18 percent said the economy will expand more than 8 percent next year.

Fifteen percent were less optimistic, saying that the rate would be below 7 percent.

Amid an overall favorable outlook for the economy next year, nearly 60 percent of the economists said the government would maintain a "neutral" monetary policy, while 35 percent said the stance would be more relaxed.

But most of them, 73 percent, suggested that the authorities should do more to lower the tax burden on businesses and consumers in order to let the economy recover.

Nearly 60 percent of the economists surveyed do not support removing the current restrictions on the real estate market, and a similar proportion said housing prices will rise along with the transaction volume.

The survey was carried out on the eve of the annual Central Economic Work Conference reportedly to be held this weekend, which is expected to set the growth target for 2013 at 7.5 percent and focus on the quality and efficiency of growth.

The result echoed another survey by Wind Information Co Ltd of 41 institutional analysts which put next year's growth rate at 7.9 percent.

China's economic growth rate fell to 7.4 percent in the third quarter of this year, a level that remains enviable globally but is seen by analysts as a trough after years of rapid development. Most of them estimated the figure will pick up to above 7.5 percent in the fourth quarter.

Zhang Zhiwei, China chief economist at Nomura Securities Co Ltd, said the country's GDP growth is expected to bounce back to more than 8 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2013, then slow in the second half toward 7 percent by the fourth quarter.

Zhang predicted that whole-year growth in 2013 is likely to be 7.7 percent.

"The fiscal and monetary policies will likely remain broadly unchanged in 2013. We do not expect a sharp change in the policy stance to occur in the near term. The government will focus less on the actual rate of growth, and instead focus on the sustainability of growth, which is positive for the economy," said Zhang.

Louis Kuijs, chief China economist with RBS, predicted that growth in 2013 may accelerate to 8 percent. "China's economic growth has bottomed out, largely in response to policy support and an initial uptick in exports."

However, he said, "in view of pending headwinds, illustrated by some weakness in the November data, we do not expect a steep recovery".

Although inflation is likely to pick up in the coming six months, he said that increase would be modest, allowing the monetary stance to remain accommodative.

"We do not expect major headline stimulus unless there is a further substantial deterioration in growth prospects," Kuijs said.

"The new leadership could possibly outline a more ambitious and comprehensive approach to rebalancing, restructuring and full urbanization," he added.

Nomura's Zhang said: "China will play an important role in driving global economic growth in 2013."

According to the survey of Chinese economists, nearly 30 percent said global economic expansion will be less than 3 percent, while only 8 percent were optimistic enough to put their estimate higher than 4 percent.

Supported by expectations that the United States will continue adopting quantitative easing measures, two thirds of the economists surveyed said the US economy will expand by more than 2 percent next year.

Although most of the economists surveyed — 70 percent — said the eurozone debt crisis will ease next year, more than 80 percent said economic growth in the eurozone would be below 1 percent.