Economy shakes off housing dependence

China's economic growth has been dragged down by government real estate curbing policies, but this year's statistics have seen it depending less on the sector, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) said in the Green Book of Housing Market released Thursday.

Although investment in real estate grew slowly at 15.7 percent in the first 10 months of this year compared with more than 30 percent in 2011, China's economy is still expected to grow 7.7 percent year-on-year in 2012, so housing control policies are unlikely to ease next year, said Ni Pengfei, a CASS researcher and author of the green book.

Property prices will be basically stable with a slight increase for the coming year, Ni said.

But Ni also noted that "there are still risks that residential houses will see spiraling prices or market crashes in some regional markets if inappropriate housing policies are carried out."

The report suggested expanding property tax pilots to more cities and canceling pre-sales of uncompleted residential houses.

China's central government has repeatedly reiterated its firm curbing stance on property market control since April 2010, but the overall property market is showing signs of recovery.

More than 11.79 million square meters of residential houses were sold in Beijing in the first 11 months of 2012, up 52.7 percent year-on-year, according to a survey that was jointly released Wednesday by the Beijing Bureau of Statistics and the National Bureau of Statistics.

Meanwhile, new construction of residential houses from January to November declined more than 6 million square meters from one year earlier, or 40.5 percent year-on-year, the survey showed.

If no new supply is offered, market demand will further exceed supply, which is likely to trigger price increases in the warming residential housing market, said Jia Kang, the director of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science under the Ministry of Finance.

New home prices in major cities have risen month-on-month for six consecutive months since June, the China Index Academy said on December 3.