Fiscal policy makers to set goal for 2013 GDP growth

Top policy-makers gathered in Beijing on Saturday for a two-day meeting to draw up the framework for next year's economic growth, and plot important long-term reforms.

In the run-up to the event, the Shanghai stock market surged 4.32 percent on Friday, its largest increase since November 2009.

The once-a-year Central Economic Work Conference usually provides the first glimpse into the priorities for the world's second largest economy in the coming year.

Economists and analysts said the conference is likely to set the goal for 2013's GDP growth at between 7.5 and 8 percent, and to highlight, more than ever before, the role of urbanization as the key driving force for China's development in the next stage.

Policy-makers will also set the targets for inflation, while clarifying the bottom line for the nation's fiscal and monetary policies in tandem with growth guidelines.

In 2012, China's GDP growth is targeted at 7.5 percent and most economists said it is achievable, judging from the country's performance up to now.

Its inflation target, in terms of consumer price indices, is set at 4 percent, and it is almost certain that actual figures would stay below the mark.

Economists and analysts are closely monitoring this year's conference in particular because the national leadership is in a once-a-decade transition.

The Communist Party of China has just elected new leaders in November. The new State leadership, including a new cabinet, is expected to emerge from the National People's Congress session in March 2013.

China has also seen many difficulties in 2012, ranging from declining orders from some of its major trade partners to a slowdown in GDP growth in the first three quarters, as the economy adjusted from depending on export and cheap labor to more domestic consumption and quality manufacturing.

Despite personnel changes, the new leadership is expected to keep both key targets and major policies close to this year's figures to leave ample room for tackling deeper economic structural issues.

The GDP growth target may remain unchanged because a higher growth rate may require the leadership to tolerate higher inflation, said Zhang Zhiwei, the chief China economist with the Nomura Securities.

Hexun.com, the domestic financial website, expected that, driven by the general confidence in the new leadership's reform commitment, Chinese stock markets will continue to rise next week, led by such industries as forest development, environmental protection, tourism, water services and clean energy.

Looking back at the economy's performance in 2012, Huang Mengfu, honorary chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, said at a forum hosted by Caijing Magazine in Sanya, Hainan province, that China has won a victory in the first stage of its economic transition, by successfully shifting gears in its growth - from high-speed to medium-speed growth - without letting the economy fall too fast into a so-called hard landing.

Huang expected the acceleration of urbanization and consumption to fuel the economy so it maintains its growth at between 7 to 8 percent in the next 20 years, but only if there is fair competition between State-owned and private enterprises.

Private companies' contribution to the economy would thus increase from 60 percent now to about 70 percent in 10 years, he said.

Also at the forum, Peter Mandelson, chairman of the Global Counsel, said the whole world would benefit from China's reforms and sustainable growth if its leaders keep a balance between long-term reform and short-term social costs.

But Qin Xiao, head of the Boyuan Foundation, a Hong Kong-registered think tank, and former chairman of China Merchants Group, said China "should not focus too much on whether it's 7 percent or 8 percent, but on the efficiency of the economic system."

With appropriate reforms, the economic system can realize greater efficiency and tolerate a lower growth rate, he pointed out.

Senior economist Wu Jinglian, however, warned that if China fails to change its model of growth and improve efficiency, "it will face a crisis of both shrinking returns on investment and falling consumption."

If China succeeds, the longtime government adviser said, the country would shift its role from "world factory" and major exporter to a market with huge potentials of its own, an exciting change for both China and the world.