Housing prices still rising: NBS

Housing prices in major cities continued to rise in December and analysts said over the weekend that prices will continue to accelerate without new measures to reduce land costs.

More cities saw a surge in prices of newly built residential houses in December, both month-on-month and year-on-year, according to data released Friday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Prices of newly built residential houses rose in 54 out of 70 major cities, compared with 53 in November, with the month-on-month growth rate hitting the highest level since May 2011, according to the NBS.

The four first-tier cities - Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen - all saw a rise in house prices in December compared to November, the official data showed.

Residential house prices in first-tier cities such as Beijing, excluding suburban areas, had already hit a record high in September, Zhang Dawei, research director at the Beijing office of Centaline Property, a real estate consulting firm, told the Global Times Sunday.

The area of residential homes sold in Beijing totaled 19.44 million square meters last year, up 35 percent from 2011, according to Beijing Municipal Statistics Bureau.

The growth trend will continue, at least in the short term, without effective policies such as a nationwide property tax, which is expected to be launched after China's parliamentary meetings in March, Zhang said.

The effect of the government's curbing policies for the real estate sector is diminishing despite their continued implementation over the last two years, as more potential buyers have become qualified to purchase houses as time has passed, Hui Jianqiang, senior researcher with E-House China R&D Institute, told the Global Times Sunday.

Under the purchase limit policy imposed by major cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, non-local residents are only qualified to buy a home after paying personal income tax and local social security fees for a certain period of time.

Contrary to the rebound in housing prices, investment in property development slowed down to 7.18 trillion yuan ($1.16 trillion) last year, a rise of 16.2 percent but still down 11.9 percentage points from the growth in 2011, the NBS data showed.

"This shows that the eagerness of property developers is declining somewhat, which will lead to less supply in the future, and that will further push up prices," Hui said.

One reason behind the declining interest of property developers might be the narrower profit margin, which is currently below 20 percent because of the real estate curbing policies, Hui said.

A further drop in the profit margin would force more developers to turn to other business areas, he noted, adding that the housing price is unlikely to fall unless the government lowers land costs and taxes, which together account for over 60 percent of the housing price.

The key is whether local governments will be willing to give up some of their land sales revenue, as it remains a major source of income for them, Hui said.