Questioning China's real achievements(3)

Niall Ferguson, professor of history at Harvard University and author of Civilization: the West and the Rest, believes that China is on the way back to shaping the world.

"I think China is going to become the biggest economy in the world in a matter of less than 10 years and that this is an almost unstoppable outcome," he says.

"I don't think we are going back to 1411 (the height of China's Ming Dynasty (1368-1644) supremacy) because that would imply a massive economic preponderance of China but I think we are going to be living in a time where there will be real parity for the first time since the early modern period."

The best-selling British historian insists there is a complacency in the US about the rise of China. "People in Washington say (about China) that they need us as much as we need them so there is no problem. I say they are wrong.

"China needs the Americans much less than it did 10 years ago. China has a plan and it is no secret because they publish it to shift away from a reliance on exports to the West and toward more domestic consumption. There is no guarantee the Chinese will continue to fund the federal deficit," he says.

Some believe the relative slowdown of the China economy will actually give the Chinese leadership the time to more clearly think about China's role in the world.

Odd Arne Westad, professor of international history at the London School of Economics and author of Restless Empire, China and the World since 1750, says it could avoid having such a heavy responsibility placed on it too soon.

"The slowing down of the general hyper growth that China has been going through over the past 30 years is probably a good thing because it forces the Chinese leadership to think in a much more hard and sober way about what China is going to do internationally.

"With great-power status comes greater responsibility but it will now happen more gradually and it is a reminder that China's economic tree doesn't grow into heaven."

One area of the world where China has had global influence has been in Africa. Apart from a major trade relationship emerging, the Chinese have been a major actor in other ways. They have been responsible for building much-needed roads, airports, ports, hospitals and schools.

Jacques says that although China has been accused of economic colonialism in Africa, China has built influence there because it has a deeper understanding of the issues they face.

"China has gone through the development process itself and some areas of the country still have a per capita income similar to a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa so I think there is a greater understanding," he says.

"The West on the other hand with its so-called Washington Consensus has tried to impose its own ideas on the continent, which has not proved successful at all and has been largely abandoned."

Professor Westad, also director of the LSE IDEAS foreign policy research center, insists there is not some grand overarching Africa strategy from the Chinese but that the relationship is driven by business.

"The Chinese business leaders I have spoken to believe there will be strong economic growth in Africa over the coming decades so to get involved for commercial reasons seems a very good idea.

"There isn't some clear Chinese State African policy. It is really about commercial development."

Kerry Brown, executive director of the China Studies Centre at Sydney University, believes Shambaugh's book says more about US' fears about China than it does about China's own issues.

"Throughout the book there lurks the shadowy sense that in the modern world, when we speak of China's dreams and hopes, we are also having to deal with American nightmares and fears," he argued in the Times Higher Education last month.

Brown believes when assessing China's influence in the world it is important to also take into account that the United States it has to deal with has changed since the terrorist attacks of Sept 11, 2001, and a Europe still dealing with the financial crisis.

"In that context, China has been as confused by how others have changed as it has been by the changes it has gone through itself."

Professor Shi at Renmin University reckons the financial crisis may be regarded as a historic turning point in 50 years because it was the beginning of US decline.

He insists, however, that we are not moving into an era where China will be a sole leader and have major influence over the rest of the world.

"I think we are going to move into a much more multi-polar world. China is not going to replace the United States as the dominant world power. The United States is going to experience relative decline but we are going to move into a much more multi-polar world where a number of countries have power and influence," he says.

Zhao, at the China Center for Contemporary World Studies, still believes the global institutions are still those that emerged in the aftermath of World War II and make it difficult for China to be a global leader.