Stronger third-quarter growth expected

China's economy may see brisker growth in the third quarter of this year, economists said Tuesday, but the momentum could fade next year amid economic restructuring efforts aimed at ensuring sustainable growth in the longer term.

Strong recovery momentum has been seen since July, following policy fine-tuning measures to spur growth, Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JP Morgan Chase & Co in Hong Kong, said in a note sent to the Global Times on Tuesday.

The delayed impact on economic growth of a strong rise in liquidity in the fourth quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of this year, as well as recovering overseas demand, especially in the eurozone, were also significant factors, Zhu said.

GDP growth will accelerate to 7.7 percent year-on-year for the third quarter, Zhu predicted.

China's economic growth slowed for a second consecutive quarter to 7.5 percent in the second quarter, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.

Sharing the same vision for the third quarter, Barclays Capital economists Chang Jian and Joey Chew said in a note sent to the Global Times Tuesday that "market sentiment will likely remain positive until the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee in November, during which the government is expected to announce some reform initiatives."

GDP data for the third quarter is scheduled to be released by the NBS on October 18.

Strong economic indicators for July and August point to faster growth in the third quarter, but some preliminary figures suggest a slowdown in growth momentum for the last quarter and onward, Zhang Lei, a Beijing-based macroecono-mic analyst with Minsheng Securities, told the Global Times Tuesday.

The consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, may rise to a seven-month high of around 2.9 percent in September, up from 2.6 percent in August, but this would be mainly due to the rise in food prices during the National Day holidays, Zhang said.

In the latest sign of more tepid activity, the release Tuesday of the HSBC China Services Purchasing Manager's Index showed a drop to 52.4 in September from 52.8 in August.

Economic growth may again slow to 7.5 percent in the fourth quarter, Zhang forecast, noting that slower growth is expected in 2014 amid the new leadership's rebalancing efforts.

The economy will grow by 7.6 percent for the whole of 2013, he said.

But Zhang stressed the moderation next year should not cause undue concern, as a slight drop in growth may be necessary for "the economy's long-term health and sustainability."

JP Morgan's Zhu maintained a 7.6 percent GDP growth forecast for 2013 despite the improvement seen in the third quarter, but ratcheted up the forecast for 2014 to 7.3 percent from the previous 7.2 percent, because of increased confidence about the economy's ability to survive potentially painful reforms.