China Nov macro data strong, retail accelerates

Tuesday's macroeconomic data, showing strong retail sales and steady growth in industrial production and investment in November, indicates China is on track to meet the government's economic growth target for this year, experts said.

China's retail sales, a key indicator for consumer spending, rose 13.7 percent year on year in November, picking up from the 13.3-percent growth recorded in October, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Tuesday.

"The stellar e-commerce sales around Nov. 11 (Chinese Single's Day) could be partly reflected in retail sales growth," said a note from a research team with the Bank of America Merrill Lynch led by chief China economist Lu Ting.

"And some stores also introduced promotions to retain customers in the face of fierce competition from online retailers," the research note added.

Industrial production growth softened in November, with industrial value-added output expanding 10 percent year on year, 0.3 percentage points lower than that in October, according to the NBS.

Niu Li, an expert with the State Information Center, said the slowdown was in line with market expectations as the comparison base in November last year was high due to a strong rebound at the end of 2012."

"The growth in industrial production in November was steady. A growth pace at around 10 percent is fully acceptable," added Niu.

China's urban fixed-asset investment growth cooled to 19.9 percent year on year in the Jan.-Nov. period, down 0.2 percentage points from the growth rate in the first 10 months, as the government intentionally shifts away from an investment- and export-driven growth model to one that is more services- and consumption-oriented.

A GOOD REPORT CARD

Tuesday's data came after November's better-than-expected exports and a drop in consumer inflation that eased fears of liquidity tightening.

China's exports outperformed market expectations in November by jumping 12.7 percent year on year due to an improved external situation, said the General Administration of Customs on Sunday.

In the first 11 months of 2013, foreign trade gained 7.7 percent year on year, close to the government target of 8 percent for 2013.

The consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, grew 3 percent year on year in November, down from 3.2 percent in October, the NBS added on Monday

In the first 11 months, the CPI rose 2.6 percent year on year, comfortably below the government target for the year of 3.5 percent.

Experts believe that the latest results confirm that the Chinese economy, which slowed down noticeably earlier this year, is now on a more stable footing.

China's economic growth accelerated to 7.8 percent in the third quarter, above the government's full-year target of 7.5 percent. It has picked up from 7.5 percent in the second and 7.7 percent in the first.

RETOOLING ECONOMY

The latest report card suggested that major Chinese economic indicators stayed within a comfortable range, leaving policy-makers more room to retool the country's economy to ensure more sustainable growth.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher with the Development Research Center of the State Council, said recent indicators pointed to steady growth for China in 2013 and into the first quarter of 2014.

"That acts in favor of promoting economic restructuring and pushing forward reforms," according to Zhang.

Such overhauls are now on top of the Chinese government's agenda as the Communist Party of China Central Committee unveiled a landmark plan to comprehensively deepen reforms last month.

However, Niu Li warned of pressures from overcapacity, rising property prices, mounting local government debt and slowing fiscal revenue growth, among other problems, in the economy.

"With muted inflation and a pace of economic growth in line with China's potential, we expect the government to maintain neutral monetary and fiscal policies in the next couple of quarters while increasing their efforts on drafting and carrying out structural reforms," according to the research note from the Bank of America Merrill Lynch.